Dr Bilawal Kamran
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s blunt message in Bannu has once again placed Pakistan’s core security dilemma at the center of South Asia’s geopolitics. His statement—“choose between Pakistan and TTP”—was more than symbolic rhetoric. It was a clear reminder to Kabul’s rulers that Pakistan cannot indefinitely tolerate the Afghan Taliban’s ambiguity on violent actors, particularly the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). For Islamabad, the equation appears simple: either the Taliban dismantle sanctuaries for groups staging cross-border attacks, or they risk diplomatic isolation, economic marginalization, and even retaliatory actions from their neighbors.
Yet, this equation is far more complex in practice. Pakistan has tried both the carrot and the stick with Afghanistan’s Taliban regime. Diplomacy, led by Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar through repeated visits to Kabul, has sought to convince Afghan leaders that cooperation benefits both sides. A trilateral framework with China has been designed to offer incentives for normalization—economic integration, trade facilitation, and greater recognition for the Taliban. On the other hand, Pakistan has also demonstrated its willingness to employ force, launching kinetic strikes against militant hideouts in Afghan territory. Neither approach, however, has fundamentally shifted the Taliban’s calculus.
The costs of inaction have been devastating. Just last week, at least 19 Pakistani troops were martyred in operations against militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The security establishment has repeatedly stated that Afghan nationals were directly involved in several attacks. These are not isolated incidents but part of a pattern enabled by permissive conditions across the border. The Taliban’s ideological ties with the TTP remain a major stumbling block. While Kabul insists it does not harbor anti-Pakistan militants, UN monitoring reports have consistently confirmed that groups like the TTP maintain a strong footprint in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s challenge lies in managing a delicate balance. Total disengagement with the Taliban would be strategically reckless. It risks pushing the Afghan rulers further into hardline isolation, possibly cementing their alliance with global jihadist networks. At the same time, maintaining the current status quo—where Afghan soil continues to serve as a launchpad for terrorism against Pakistan—is unsustainable. The middle path, therefore, seems to be calibrated engagement: limited dialogue, combined with international pressure, particularly from China and other regional stakeholders, to compel the Taliban toward responsible state behavior.
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The Taliban themselves face a crucial choice. If they continue to prioritize ideological solidarity with groups like the TTP, they will jeopardize any prospects of international recognition, foreign investment, or integration into regional projects such as CPEC connectivity and energy pipelines. Already, global patience is wearing thin. The UN has confirmed militant activity on Afghan soil, while neighboring states grow increasingly wary of Taliban promises. For Kabul, persisting with denials only deepens distrust. The alternative is to adopt pragmatic measures: curbing the TTP’s freedom of movement, ensuring militant bases are dismantled, and offering credible guarantees to neighbors that Afghan territory will not threaten regional security.
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For Pakistan, internal preparedness is equally critical. While diplomatic and military strategies remain essential, Islamabad must also strengthen its domestic counterterrorism architecture. Intelligence coordination, fortified border management, and improved civilian-military cooperation will be necessary to minimize troop casualties and protect border communities. Investment in socio-economic stability in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan is equally important to undercut militant recruitment.
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Ultimately, the crisis underscores an uncomfortable truth: the Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to sever ties with the TTP has turned Afghanistan into a safe haven for groups targeting Pakistan. Unless this policy shifts, prospects for regional stability will remain bleak. Islamabad, therefore, must continue applying pressure while rallying international actors to hold Kabul accountable. Engagement should remain cautious, conditional, and pragmatic.
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Pakistan’s demand is not unreasonable: no sovereign state can tolerate cross-border terrorism. The Afghan Taliban must now decide whether they wish to remain hostage to ideology or act as a responsible government seeking legitimacy in the international order. That choice, more than anything else, will determine not only the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations but also the security trajectory of the entire region.
