Dr Shabana Safdar Khan

The latest drought warning issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is a wake-up call that cannot be ignored. With rainfall levels in Sindh already 62% below normal, and Balochistan not far behind, large areas of the country are now on the brink of a severe dry spell. This is not just a weather forecast – it’s a slow-moving emergency that is rapidly becoming a full-blown crisis.

The signs are unmistakable: over 200 consecutive dry days in some regions, critically low dam levels, and rising topsoil temperatures. These are conditions that demand immediate attention and action. The situation in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab, has gone beyond the point of simply waiting for things to improve on their own. What’s happening now is a manifestation of the broader resource crisis that Pakistan is facing, with direct implications for food security, rural livelihoods, and national stability.

The country’s agricultural system is particularly vulnerable. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, sustaining millions of livelihoods and supporting national food production. However, reduced rainfall, declining groundwater levels, and soil degradation are rapidly diminishing agricultural yields. In some areas, the situation has already reached crisis levels, with the twin lifelines of Pakistan’s irrigation system – Tarbela and Mangla dams – hovering near critical lows.

The PMD’s report also highlights that average temperatures in southern Pakistan have been 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than normal. This warming trend is increasing evaporation rates, depleting the moisture that remains in the soil, and further exacerbating the drought’s impacts. The provinces of Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab are especially hard-hit, and conditions are only expected to worsen if immediate action is not taken.

Punjab’s provincial disaster management authority has already flagged Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, and Rahim Yar Khan as drought-prone districts. Yet, the official response remains focused on preparedness, not active intervention. This is where the urgency of the situation lies – Pakistan cannot afford to sit back and wait for a disaster to unfold; action must be taken now.

The current water crisis is not confined to rural areas or agriculture alone. Urban centers like Karachi, Hyderabad, and Quetta, which are already grappling with resource shortages, are likely to experience mounting stress as rural areas face worsening shortages and forced migration. With more people moving toward urban areas in search of water and food, these cities will be under increasing pressure to meet the demands of a growing population.

Pakistan’s response to this looming crisis must go beyond business-as-usual thinking. It’s not enough to issue warnings and make vague plans for preparedness. The country’s leaders must act decisively and make bold moves to address the water shortages head-on.

First and foremost, there must be immediate rationing of irrigation water. The agricultural sector must be prioritized, but this will require tough decisions about how to allocate water resources efficiently. At the same time, efforts to repair leaking canals must be accelerated, as every drop of water that is wasted compounds the problem.

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Additionally, stricter enforcement of groundwater usage limits is essential. Over-extraction of groundwater has been a major issue in Pakistan for years, and as surface water sources become scarcer, reliance on groundwater will only increase. However, unless there is a concerted effort to regulate groundwater use and prevent over-extraction, the situation will only worsen.

Equally important is the need for public awareness campaigns on water conservation. It is vital that Pakistan’s citizens understand the severity of the water crisis and the actions they can take to help reduce consumption. From urban areas to rural villages, every individual must be made aware of the need to conserve water and reduce waste.

The water crisis facing Pakistan is not just a problem for one province or region; it is a national issue that requires a coordinated, nationwide response. Historically, water-sharing disputes between provinces have created tensions, but in the face of this unprecedented crisis, these divisions must be put aside in favor of collective action. It’s time for a unified approach to managing the country’s water resources, with national coordination playing a central role.

A National Drought Response Task Force, empowered to make decisions and allocate resources efficiently, should already be in place. This task force would bring together experts from across the country to develop and implement comprehensive drought mitigation strategies, including measures for managing water, supporting affected communities, and ensuring the availability of food and other essential resources.

The looming drought and its consequences are not isolated events. They are symptoms of a much larger issue – the impact of climate change. Pakistan, like many other countries, is already experiencing the effects of rising temperatures, unpredictable weather patterns, and shifting rainfall patterns. This is not a future risk; it is Pakistan’s present reality.

If policymakers continue to treat these climate-related events as isolated anomalies, the country will always be one step behind in responding to the crisis. It’s time for a fundamental shift in how Pakistan addresses climate change and its associated impacts. This includes not only better disaster preparedness and response but also long-term strategies for adapting to a changing climate.

In the short term, the focus must be on providing relief to affected communities, particularly in Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab. Measures such as water rationing, repair of irrigation infrastructure, and strengthening emergency response teams are essential. Furthermore, urban areas must begin investing in alternative water sources, such as desalination, to ensure that cities are prepared for the future.

However, Pakistan must also look beyond the immediate crisis and develop a long-term strategy for managing its water resources. This will require investment in water conservation technologies, the development of new water infrastructure, and policies that incentivize sustainable water use across all sectors, including agriculture, industry, and urban areas.

Pakistan is facing a water crisis that threatens its food security, rural livelihoods, and national stability. While the PMD’s warning is clear, the response from authorities so far has been inadequate. The country’s leaders must act urgently, putting aside political differences and focusing on a unified, coordinated response to the crisis. The window of opportunity to act is rapidly closing, and if Pakistan does not take bold and decisive steps now, the consequences will be severe for the country’s future.