Tahir Maqsood Chheena
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the third-biggest province of Pakistan in terms of population and the fourth-largest province in size. Politically, it has been more vibrant than other provinces. Historically, it has been voting for different political parties; however, it has consistently voted for PTI for the last two terms. Republicpolicy.com has conducted a survey in the province of KPK from the 5th of April, 2023, to the 16th of April, 2023. Earlier, team republicpolicy.com surveyed in Punjab. The survey of Punjab and KPK was conducted because the provincial assembly elections were announced in the provinces. The survey of Sindh and Balochistan will also be conducted once their elections are announced. The surveys are conducted according to the form-5 of the Delimitation of 2022 by Election Commission of Pakistan.
It is a constituency-based survey, and the sample question is one. Which political party will you vote for in the coming provincial elections?
The details of the survey shall be published soon. However, the most popular leader of the province is being published. Imran Khan is the most popular leader in KPK according to the survey of republicpolicy.com
Alongside the primary question for the survey, additional information has also been collected. It is also important to know who is the most popular political leader and party of the KPK? There are three basic elements. One is, who is the most popular political leader? The second is, which is the most popular political party? And, the third is, who is the most suitable candidate of the constituency? Occasionally, there may be a difference between popular leader and political party. Then, if the leader and political party are equally popular, it does not mean that, they will win the constituency, because constituency victory depends upon other factors including suitability of a candidate. Therefore constituency politics is a science, and it can not be predicted, managed and executed without considering all factors including those of electioneering.
Coming back to the point, who is the most popular leader in KPK. The analysis is being put forward:
KPK is a diversified province. It has seven divisions and 37 districts. Politically and culturally, there are five distinct regions.
- Malakand Division
- Hazara region
- Peshawar Valley
- Ex- Fata
- South KPK
Malakand Division is the most extensive and unique region. It has ten districts. Bajur, Boner, Central, lower, upper Dir, Upper and Lower Chitral, Malakand, Shangla and Swat are the districts. PTI is the most popular party in the region, followed by JI, and there are a few pockets of PPPP. Imran Khan is the most popular leader here, followed by Siraj ul Haq. JI was strong here, but PTI has now gained more popularity in Dir and Chitral. PMLN also has little support in Shangla and Sawat. Then there are also a few popular electives. However, the popularity of PTI and Imran Khan is soaring in the region.
Hazara region is a non-pushtoon belt of KPK. It identifies more with the Pothohar region of Punjab. It is the region where PMLN has always been more popular. Then, later, PTI gained an advantage over PMLN, and now it is leading the region. Imran Khan is the most popular leader in the region, followed by PMLN family leaders. Electives are also important in the regions because the chieftains also represent Awans, abbacies, Gujjar, Jaddon and others. Abbot Abad, Batgram, Haripur, Kolaai Pass, lower Kohistan, Upper Kohistan, Tor Char, and Mansehra are the districts in the region.
Peshawar Valley is the most thickly populated region of KPK. It comprises Peshwar, Noshehra, Charsadda, Mardan and Sawabi. It has been the power centre of ANP and nationalists. However, it has not been the case since 2013. PTI and Imran Khan are the most popular leader and political party, even in April 2023. ANP and Sherpao’s leadership seems far behind the soaring popularity of PTI and Imran Khan. Apart from nationalists, JUI F has a few regional pockets. However, the role of electives is not much of a consideration.
South KPK has a different trend. It is the area in which JUIF and Maulana Fazal ur Rehman are also popular. However, Imran Khan and PTI are comfortably more popular. The region is categorized into Kohat and Dera Ismael Khan Divisions. It includes Hangu, Karak, Kohat, DI Khan and Tank. Imran Khan and PTI are the region’s most popular leader and political party. Once, JUI F was the most popular political party, but now, PTI has taken over. However, still, JUI F is competitive on many seats.
The region of ex-FATA is still unique politically and culturally. Seven FATA agencies and six frontier regions are amalgamated into districts now. North Waziristan, Upper South Waziristan, Lower South Waziristan, Karam, Orakzai, Bajur, Mohmand and Khyber are the new districts now. The districts are being administered through district administration like all other districts in the province. The region has a mixed trend. Local tribal leadership is still popular. Wazirstan has support for the members of PTM, although PTM is not a political party. Bajur is the area where PTI is popular. Other areas do have electives, also. JUI F is also strong in the area, followed by JI. However, PTI and Imran Khan are the most popular in the area over all other political parties and leaders. Lastly, the role of Chieftains is still relevant in Ex FATA. Supposedly, the combination of Political party and strong candidate in the region is essential to win the constituencies.
Lastly, the constituency details shall be published at republicpolicy.com
