The Finance Division projects Pakistan’s headline inflation to remain between 3–4% in June 2025. In May, inflation rose to 3.5% from 0.3% in April, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, while JS Global forecasts a slight decline to 3.1% for June.
The outlook for Large Scale Manufacturing is optimistic, supported by increased cement and automobile sales, as well as higher private sector credit, indicating improved business confidence.
On the external front, rising remittances and exports are expected to maintain a current account surplus for FY2025. The economy continued stable growth, with real GDP rising 2.68%, a $1.81 billion current account surplus, reduced fiscal deficit, and a 3.2% primary surplus during July–April FY2025.
Ongoing IMF programs and improved credit ratings have strengthened policy credibility and investor sentiment.
Agriculture Outlook
For the 2025–26 Kharif season, targets include 2.2 million hectares of cotton and 10.18 million bales in production. Farm input availability has improved, with April urea and DAP offtake rising 4.6% and 135.2% year-on-year, respectively.
