India’s Strikes in Pakistan: Deterrence or Dangerous Escalation?

Editorial

In a dramatic overnight blitz, India launched missile and air strikes on nine alleged militant sites deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir—marking its most expansive cross-border operation in years. The strikes, carried out between 1:05 and 1:30 AM IST, shattered the uneasy calm of the region, leaving residents on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) shaken.

India claims it struck critical hubs of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen, citing “credible intelligence” linking them to last month’s deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam. In contrast, Pakistan reported six locations hit, claimed to have downed five Indian jets, and reported 26 fatalities—charges India has not confirmed.

This latest confrontation dangerously widens the geographical scope of India’s military doctrine. Unlike the 2019 Balakot strike, which was limited to Pakistan-administered Kashmir, India this time targeted sites in Pakistan’s Punjab, including a Jaish-e-Mohammed HQ in Bahawalpur—100 km inside Pakistan’s heartland.

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The move, dubbed a “Balakot plus” response by experts, is seen as an attempt to reassert deterrence, but it risks spiraling into a broader conflict. Analysts warn that while India’s strikes are precise and publicly claimed—reducing deniability—Pakistan’s military is under pressure to respond, especially amid domestic political strife and mounting public scrutiny.

As history shows, both nations have walked this perilous path before—most recently in 2019 when swift diplomatic maneuvering narrowly averted a larger conflict. But with tempers high and rhetoric hardening, the current standoff could escalate further unless cooler heads prevail.

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India and Pakistan are once again at a dangerous crossroads. The question now is whether both nuclear-armed neighbors can step back from the brink—or if they are locked into yet another perilous cycle of retaliation.

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