Dr Bilawal Kamran
India’s aggressive push to weaponise water continues unabated, with reports emerging that its Ministry of Environment recently approved the 258MW Dulhasti Stage-II hydropower project on the Chenab River in illegally Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. This approval follows the earlier green light given in October for the much larger 1,856MW Sawalkote project, which had been stalled for years due to serious environmental concerns and constraints imposed by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Since the Pahalgam incident last year, India has effectively put the treaty on hold, hardening its stance toward Pakistan and accelerating hydropower development across the Indus basin.
According to reporting by The Hindu, at least seven previously stalled projects are now fast-tracked alongside Dulhasti Stage-II and Sawalkote. The pattern is clear: environmental safeguards and the spirit of the IWT are being sidelined to assert control over rivers legally allocated to Pakistan, where India is meant to have largely non-consumptive usage rights. What was once a theoretical concern — India using water as a strategic weapon — is now becoming a tangible threat.
The impact of upstream Indian activity is already being felt. In recent months, abrupt and unexplained fluctuations in the Chenab and Jhelum rivers caused significant anxiety among farmers in Punjab. Similar concerns arose over the summer, when India’s upstream handling of river flows heightened fears that shared rivers are increasingly being managed in ways that bypass the treaty’s established framework. While these episodic manipulations have immediate effects, the construction of large-scale hydropower projects represents a far more lasting and strategic challenge.
Unlike temporary adjustments in water release, mega-projects embed control in concrete and steel, giving India the ability to regulate both timing and volume of river flows permanently. Hydropower construction on the Chenab and Jhelum would allow the upper riparian state to create sudden surpluses or shortages at critical times, directly affecting Pakistan’s downstream users. The stakes are enormous: Pakistan’s agriculture, the backbone of its economy, would face serious disruption. Millions of farmers could be placed at risk, while agro-based industries, food processing units, rural employment, and national food security would all suffer. Reduced crop yields could depress exports, drive up domestic prices, and destabilise the broader economy.
It is entirely justified for Islamabad to frame India’s suspension of the IWT as an act of economic aggression, if not outright war. However, the consequences of India’s water militarisation are not confined to Pakistan alone. The Chenab River has already lost nearly one-third of its glacial volume due to climate change. With half of its flow dependent on meltwater, large-scale upstream projects could threaten water availability and crop cycles within India itself. Furthermore, extensive hydropower construction risks damaging the ecological balance of the greater Himalayan region, undermining the sustainability of river systems for both countries. In short, India risks cutting off its own nose to spite its face.
While Pakistan’s commissioner for the Indus Waters Treaty has formally sought clarification from his Indian counterpart regarding these projects, Islamabad cannot afford to adopt a purely reactive posture. Strengthening national water security must be a priority. Advanced monitoring of river flows using hydrological and satellite technologies, along with improvements in irrigation efficiency and storage infrastructure, can help reduce vulnerabilities. Independent studies assessing the impact of upstream projects on Pakistan’s agriculture, hydropower potential, and overall water availability should be conducted and made public to raise global awareness of India’s actions.
Diplomatic efforts must highlight New Delhi’s willingness to jeopardise millions of lives and the ecological stability of an entire region. The international community needs to understand that India’s unilateral actions flout not only treaty obligations but also fundamental norms of regional cooperation. Pakistan, for its part, must act decisively to hold India accountable, combining legal, scientific, and diplomatic tools to safeguard its water resources and national interests.
The risks posed by India’s hydropower expansion extend far beyond politics. Water is central to the livelihoods of millions, underpinning agriculture, food security, and rural economies. Disrupting river flows through large dams and gated reservoirs could produce cascading effects, from crop failures to food inflation, social unrest, and economic instability. Mega projects on rivers like the Chenab and Jhelum are not simply infrastructure initiatives; they are instruments of strategic leverage that could be used to coerce or destabilise a downstream nation.
Pakistan must also prepare for long-term contingencies. Strengthening domestic storage, modernising irrigation, and adopting water-efficient practices are critical to mitigating risks. Simultaneously, regional and international awareness campaigns can help pressure India to adhere to the principles of the IWT and broader norms of transboundary water cooperation. Scientific evidence and satellite data can provide an objective basis to challenge unilateral actions, making it harder for India to manipulate perceptions or justify projects as benign hydropower developments.
The environmental dimension cannot be ignored. Large-scale dams and hydropower projects can have devastating ecological impacts, including reduced sediment flow, altered riverine ecosystems, and threats to biodiversity. With glaciers retreating due to climate change, the fragile Himalayan ecosystem is under mounting pressure. Any upstream mismanagement could exacerbate these risks, further destabilising water availability in both countries and amplifying the long-term consequences of India’s hydropower ambitions.
In conclusion, India’s push to weaponise water through accelerated hydropower construction in illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir presents an urgent challenge for Pakistan and the region. The combination of treaty violations, strategic leverage over downstream flows, and ecological risks requires a multi-pronged response. Pakistan must strengthen its water security, pursue international awareness, and prepare for contingencies while holding India accountable for its actions. The stakes are immense: millions of livelihoods, the stability of the agricultural sector, and the ecological balance of the Himalayas are all at risk. Without decisive action, India’s unilateral projects could reshape the Indus basin in ways that endanger both human and environmental security for decades to come.
