Editorial

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has long stood as a rare symbol of cooperation between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan. Despite wars, persistent hostilities, and political upheavals, the treaty endured for over six decades. It divided the six rivers of the Indus basin—granting the three eastern rivers to India and the western ones to Pakistan—and maintained water-sharing protocols even in times of crisis.

However, following the recent attack in Pahalgam (in Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir), which resulted in the deaths of tourists, India took an unprecedented step: it temporarily suspended water flow for 24 hours before releasing a sudden surge downstream. This act has thrown the treaty into uncharted territory and introduced the dangerous possibility of water being used as a weapon.

Pakistan, one of the world’s most water-stressed nations, relies on the Indus system for 75% of its freshwater needs and 90% of its agricultural output. Any abrupt disruption in water flow could devastate its irrigation systems, cause crop failure, and trigger economic and social turmoil, including mass urban migration.

India’s own northern states—Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh—also depend on these rivers for agriculture and hydropower. Sustained interference with the treaty could invite retaliation from Pakistan, such as contesting India’s hydropower projects or escalating diplomatic pressure.

With climate change shrinking Himalayan glaciers and reducing river flows, weaponizing water could accelerate ecological degradation, threatening both countries. India risks damaging its global reputation as a trustworthy negotiator—not only with Pakistan but also with downstream nations like Bangladesh and Nepal.

The treaty’s erosion could signal the rise of water conflicts in South Asia. As Ismail Serageldin warned: “The next world war will be over water.”