France is bracing for another political crisis as the minority government of Prime Minister François Bayrou appears almost certain to be toppled in a confidence vote scheduled for September 8. The impending showdown is rooted in deep political divisions over a controversial and unpopular €44bn austerity budget aimed at reducing the nation’s public debt.
In a high-stakes gamble, the 74-year-old centrist prime minister made the surprise decision to call the vote himself, vowing on Tuesday to “fight like a dog” for his government’s survival. However, opposition parties on both the far-right and the left have welcomed the opportunity to eject him after less than nine months in office, making his defeat a near certainty. “We need to change politics and for that we need to change prime minister,” declared Boris Vallaud of the Socialist party.
The prospect of another government collapse—less than a year after the previous administration was ousted over similar budget disagreements—has already rattled the economy. On Tuesday, the Paris stock market tumbled, shares in French banks sank, and the country’s borrowing costs rose as investors grew anxious. Meanwhile, a protest movement that gained momentum on social media over the summer is set to begin on September 10, with trade unions also considering strikes and demonstrations.
At the heart of the crisis is Bayrou’s vague austerity plan, which includes scrapping two public holidays, freezing welfare spending, and making deep cuts to the public health service. The proposals have been widely condemned across the political spectrum as unfair, with polls showing that 80% of the French public distrusts the prime minister. In a last-minute appeal to the left, Bayrou said he was prepared to demand a “specific effort” from high-wealth individuals to rebalance the plan.
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If Bayrou is ousted, President Emmanuel Macron will be plunged into domestic turmoil at a critical time for his international agenda, which includes focusing on the war in Ukraine and the recognition of a Palestinian state. While Macron can appoint a new prime minister, any successor would likely face the same parliamentary gridlock over the budget. Opposition leader Marine Le Pen’s party is instead demanding that Macron dissolve parliament and call a snap election, a move the president has so far resisted.
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The crisis highlights the deep fragmentation of the French parliament since an inconclusive snap election in June 2024 left no single bloc with an absolute majority. The government has been propped up by the right-wing Les Républicains, whose leader called it “irresponsible” to vote the government down. However, with the left alliance holding the largest number of seats, its leaders are insisting that Macron must now appoint a prime minister from their ranks to break the stalemate.
