Arshad Mahmood Awan
For months, tensions along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border had been simmering. That pressure finally burst into open conflict late Saturday, when the Afghan Taliban regime launched coordinated attacks inside Pakistan. In response, Pakistani forces repelled the assault with force, marking the most serious confrontation between the two neighbouring states in recent years.
The trigger lies in the escalating wave of terrorist violence emanating from Afghan soil. The banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has stepped up cross-border attacks, targeting security posts and convoys, claiming dozens of Pakistani lives in recent weeks. Islamabad has repeatedly warned Kabul to dismantle the TTP’s sanctuaries, but the Taliban government has remained defiant — or indifferent.
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Reports emerged last Thursday of a covert strike in Kabul allegedly targeting the TTP’s top leadership. While Afghan officials issued a vague statement acknowledging “an incident,” Pakistan declined to confirm or deny its involvement. Yet, only days later, the Afghan Taliban’s retaliatory offensive began, resulting in 23 Pakistani soldiers martyred and around 200 Taliban fighters reportedly killed.
By Sunday evening, hostilities had subsided. Kabul’s foreign minister claimed that “friends Qatar and Saudi Arabia” intervened to mediate de-escalation. Iran too, which shares borders with both countries, urged restraint and offered to mediate between “two Muslim neighbours.” The diplomatic intervention averted a wider military conflagration — at least for now.
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While Pakistan has successfully demonstrated its capacity for self-defence, it must now prioritize preventing a deeper conflict. The stakes are immense: a full-scale war between two Muslim neighbours would destabilize the entire region, already grappling with overlapping crises of terrorism, economic distress, and political volatility.
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However, the broader strategic context cannot be ignored. Pakistan must note the changing diplomatic landscape — particularly the growing warmth between Kabul and New Delhi. Once adversaries, India and the Afghan Taliban have recently established open diplomatic channels. The Afghan foreign minister’s reception in New Delhi reflects a realignment that could undermine Pakistan’s regional leverage.
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Pakistan’s grievance remains valid and urgent: the Afghan Taliban continues to host the TTP — a group responsible for mass killings of Pakistani civilians and soldiers. Despite public pledges, Kabul has failed to act against these militants. The international community, including the UN and regional powers like China and Iran, acknowledge the presence of terrorist networks — including Al Qaeda and ETIM — operating from Afghan soil.
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Pakistan, therefore, faces a dual challenge: securing its borders militarily while addressing terrorism through diplomacy. Retaliatory strikes may deliver tactical victories, but they cannot resolve the strategic problem of state-sponsored sanctuaries. Long-term peace demands a combination of deterrence and dialogue — using regional and Islamic diplomatic frameworks to compel Kabul to honour counterterrorism commitments.
The time has come for a coordinated regional response. Pakistan should actively engage its partners — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, China, and Turkey — to pressure the Taliban regime into compliance with international norms. These states possess both religious legitimacy and strategic influence over Kabul’s leadership. A joint security framework under the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) could institutionalize counterterror cooperation and prevent future flare-ups.
Equally, Islamabad must calibrate its internal security strategy. Border fencing, intelligence coordination, and targeted counterterror operations must be complemented by economic and political outreach to border communities. Extremism thrives in poverty and alienation — conditions that no amount of military might can permanently eradicate.
Diplomacy, patience, and strategic foresight are now Pakistan’s best weapons. This episode should not spiral into another endless frontier conflict but instead serve as a turning point — forcing both Islamabad and Kabul to realize that peace, not proxy wars, is the only path forward.
