Editorial
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down Pakistan’s economic growth outlook, projecting GDP expansion of 3.2 percent for the current fiscal year, compared with 3.6 percent estimated in its October 2025 report. For 2025, the IMF estimated growth at 3 percent, with a modest rise to 4.1 percent expected in 2027. The World Bank has offered a similar assessment, forecasting growth of 3 percent in 2025–26 and 3.4 percent in 2026–27.
Domestically, the National Accounts Committee confirmed GDP growth of 3.09 percent in 2024–25 and 3.71 percent during the first quarter of 2025–26, reflecting steady, if unspectacular, performance.
Globally, the IMF expects growth to remain resilient at around 3.3 percent in 2026, supported by technology-driven investment, particularly in artificial intelligence, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, and private sector adaptability. Inflation is projected to gradually decline, from an estimated 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.4 percent by 2027, signaling a slow return to price stability.
However, risks remain significant. Domestic and geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, high public debt, and potential corrections in AI-driven markets could weigh heavily on Pakistan and the global economy. On the positive side, sustained investment in technology and easing trade conflicts could lift productivity and support longer-term growth.
For Pakistan, the path to stronger and sustainable growth depends on decisive action: restoring fiscal buffers, maintaining price and financial stability, reducing uncertainty, and implementing structural reforms. Without these steps, the economy risks stagnation, leaving the country vulnerable to both domestic and global shocks. The latest IMF projections serve as a reminder that while global conditions offer opportunities, Pakistan’s economic future hinges on effective governance and timely policy intervention.
