In September 2024, Pakistan’s power generation fell to 12,487 GWh (17,343 MW), marking a decrease of more than 6% compared to the same month last year when it was 13,339 GWh (18,527 MW). Month-over-month, there was a 5.3% drop from August’s generation of 13,179 GWh.

For the first quarter of FY25 (July-September), total electricity production decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totalling 40,546 GWh compared to 44,137 GWh in the same period the previous year. Analysts point to several reasons for this trend, including poor economic conditions and an increasing shift towards solar and captive power generation. Amad Aamir from Arif Habib Limited (AHL) noted that more consumers are opting for off-grid solutions.

Additionally, actual power generation in September 2024 was 10% lower than anticipated. This reduction is expected to lead to higher capacity charges, estimated at Rs5.6 KWh for December, January, and February.

In contrast, electricity generation costs surged by 12.4%, reaching Rs8.34 KWh in September 2024, up from Rs7.42 KWh the previous year. The rise in costs is largely due to increased reliance on imported coal, with its price climbing over 9% to Rs25.96 KWh, while cheaper sources like hydel and nuclear saw lower production rates. Hydel power remained the largest contributor to the energy mix, making up 38.7% of total generation, followed by RLNG at 16.3% and nuclear at 12.8%. Renewable sources such as wind, solar, and bagasse contributed a small fraction, at 3.2%, 0.8%, and 0.3%, respectively.