Dr Bilawal Kamran
The discussions held at the Pakistan Banking Summit 2025 should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers. At the summit, Atif Bajwa, Chairman and CEO of Bank Alfalah, echoed the Finance Minister’s remarks, identifying population growth and climate change as the two most significant existential challenges facing Pakistan. While climate change deserves attention, it’s the unchecked population boom that remains the elephant in the room, one that authorities have long neglected, with potentially disastrous consequences for the country’s economic and social stability.
Pakistan’s population explosion, now exceeding 240 million, has become a crisis point. The country is experiencing one of the highest birth rates in the world, and this rapid demographic expansion is placing unbearable pressure on Pakistan’s already fragile infrastructure and public services. With insufficient resources and a lagging economy, the nation is struggling to meet basic demands in education, healthcare, housing, and employment.
The link between population growth and economic stagnation is well-documented. A rising population requires more resources, yet without corresponding increases in economic output, the result is widespread poverty, higher unemployment, and declining living standards. This reality is becoming clearer every day in Pakistan. Bajwa’s comments about the need for a mindset shift are particularly important, as the reluctance to address population control policies due to political sensitivities is worsening the problem. No economic model can sustain rapid population growth without major investment in infrastructure, governance, and fiscal resources—and Pakistan has neither the capacity nor the political will to achieve these reforms in time.
One critical issue highlighted by Bajwa is the strain on Pakistan’s Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). With limited resources and an ever-growing population, the government’s ability to finance and implement developmental projects is severely restricted. Schools are overcrowded, hospitals are overwhelmed, and the capacity of social services has already reached its breaking point. The sheer volume of people entering the system is pushing public resources beyond their limits.
Perhaps the most significant consequence of Pakistan’s population growth is its impact on employment. Every year, millions of young people enter the workforce, but the economy cannot absorb them fast enough. The job market remains stagnant, and Pakistan’s economy would need to grow at unprecedented rates simply to keep pace with the rising number of job seekers. Unfortunately, this is not happening. Instead, the country faces increasing unemployment, a growing informal labor market, and widening socioeconomic inequality. These factors contribute to a sense of frustration among the youth, leading many to seek opportunities abroad, further exacerbating the reliance on remittances and leaving the domestic economy in a weakened state.
In addition to the social and economic costs, population growth is placing immense pressure on the environment. Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries globally, and the rapid population increase is only intensifying this crisis. The country’s urban centers are expanding uncontrollably, placing further strain on natural resources, including land, water, and energy. The environmental challenges will only worsen with time. More people mean more pollution, more emissions, and further deforestation—aggravating an already fragile ecological situation. As climate change accelerates, Pakistan will feel the compounded effects of both environmental degradation and demographic growth, creating a vicious cycle of crisis.
Bajwa also acknowledged the positive role the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has played in stabilizing the economy amidst such dire conditions. While the central bank’s prudent management has certainly helped prevent a deeper crisis, Bajwa rightly emphasized that economic stability alone is not enough to secure Pakistan’s future. Structural reforms are urgently needed to address the root causes of the country’s ongoing crises, particularly the population explosion.
Reforms in banking, digital finance, and financial inclusion are all important steps, but they will not be enough if Pakistan’s population continues to grow unchecked. Economic policy reforms must be matched with a comprehensive plan to control population growth, or they risk becoming irrelevant. Without addressing the underlying issue of demographic pressure, the benefits of financial inclusion and digital banking will be overwhelmed by the relentless demands of a rapidly expanding population.
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Now is the time for serious action. Population control is no longer just a development issue—it is an economic, social, and security imperative. Pakistan’s government must take bold steps to promote family planning and invest in women’s education, which has been shown to be one of the most effective ways to reduce birth rates. Additionally, addressing barriers to access to contraceptives and reproductive health services must be a central focus. Without these steps, Pakistan will continue to face an uphill battle in ensuring long-term economic prosperity and social stability.
It is crucial that policymakers understand that the population crisis is intricately linked to the country’s broader development challenges. Economic growth, job creation, and infrastructure development will all be undermined if Pakistan’s population continues to rise at its current rate. The situation demands a coordinated response, combining family planning initiatives with comprehensive education reform, health services, and job creation policies. Failure to address population growth will only worsen the country’s economic and environmental problems, leading to a future where social unrest and inequality become even more entrenched.
Moreover, Pakistan’s leaders must stop treating population control as a politically sensitive or taboo subject. The nation’s economic and social stability depend on making difficult decisions now, before the consequences become even more severe. For far too long, the issue of rapid population growth has been ignored, with discussions sidelined by political and cultural sensitivities. It’s time for a paradigm shift. Pakistan can no longer afford to avoid the issue—it must confront it head-on if it hopes to secure a prosperous and stable future.
Hence, the Pakistan Banking Summit 2025 has illuminated many of the country’s most pressing challenges, and Atif Bajwa’s comments about the need for a shift in mindset are a vital call to action. The population crisis is not just a development issue—it is a fundamental barrier to Pakistan’s future economic success and social cohesion. Policymakers must take bold steps to address this problem, or the country will continue to face significant economic and social instability. By prioritizing population control, women’s education, and access to family planning, Pakistan can begin to address its underlying demographic issues and set the foundation for long-term prosperity. The future of the nation depends on it.
