EDITORIAL
The elections of Punjab and KPK assemblies are around the corner, especially after the ruling of the High Court. The constitutional period of ninety days has to be implemented. There is no escape from it. The dissolution of Punjab and KPK has put PTI in opposition; that’s why the burden of incumbency has subsided, and it seems that PTI will win KPK and Punjab Elections.
In developing countries, where economic stability is the core preference of the electorate, the incumbency factor is the vital determinant of electoral results. At the beginning of 2022, PTI was carrying all the burden, but with the regime change, the responsibility of incumbency was shifted to PDM. Then, with the dissolution of the Punjab and KPK assemblies, the whole incumbency responsibility has fallen upon the PDM. More than that, PDM has not been able to perform economically; therefore, the PDM will not be able to woe the electorate. Alongside the incumbency factor, other factors are also significant.
The electorate in Pakistan has gone complex and comprehensively sectoral. Still, it is assumed that Inflation and other parameters of the economy are the prominent factors in electoral politics. Therefore, a political government must perform economically. The problem with PDM is that they have been unable to perform in the Economy and Governance, and PDM shall carry the burden, especially the PMLN. The political constituency of PML N is Punjab, and a significant part of Punjabies vote for performance. PML N is rare among voters who vote for economy and governance. However, it is different with PPP or JUIF, which are still prevalent in their traditional electorates. The province of Punjab decides the political battle, and it seems PTI is leading it, although PTI is also popular in PKP, Urban Sindh and the Pushton belt of Balochistan. The interior Sindh and a few constituencies of Balochistan are the political sectors where PTI is uncompetitive. Otherwise, in all electoral constituencies, PTI competes with ANP, JUIF, PMLN, PPP, MQM and other parties. It ensures that PTI shall win the next general elections, and PDM can only compete with PTI, not any single political party of PDM.
There are also a few political factors. There is a significant increase in pro-democracy votes in Pakistan, especially in Punjab. Political parties are increasingly becoming more critical than electives. There are more democratic voices. Even the traditional control over elections is weakened. People are more vigilant, the political parties are more trained, and there is a consensus that elections should be fair and transparent. Therefore, it is not easy to rig elections this time. Despite all political calculations and manoeuvring, the bye-elections held in July 2022 manifest that the political electorate has strengthened. Hence, it is challenging now to quel political aspiration and popularity.
Political prophecies are always there. There are always objective indicators to conjecture. The political air is with PTI. PTI exists in almost all electoral segments. PTI has the vote bank of Imran Khan and PTI. Then, they have lately caught the imagination of pro-democratic voters as Nawaz Sharif sidetracked them. Pro-democratic voters are now a significant part of the electorate. Overseas and youth are still with PTI. Lately, PTI has been more popular in villages in Punjab due to their anti-US and related nationalistic issues. They have also been able to woe the Brelvi cult, thus minimising TLP votes and increasing their vote bank in Punjab. They also have stronger electives now. Then, they are without the incumbency factor. Lastly, they are on a political roll and can only be obstructed if PDM performs on the economic front, and that seems unlikely. Hence, if PML N cannot tap the economy and governance votes, there is no way to stop PTI from winning the coming elections in Punjab and KPK.
PML N requires serious introspection now. Even central Punjab is showing different trends. Different surveys show that PTI is gaining in central Punjab, once the political stronghold of PMLN. PTI is already popular in northern and southern Punjab. Then, PTI is popular in KPK, including Peshawar valley, Hazara belt, south KPK and Malakand Division. They are also present in the areas once called FATA. Therefore, they are favorite to win the elections in Punjab and KPK until extra-ordinary political upheaval happens.
Lastly, the sympathy wave is with PTI, and people understand that they are being stopped from coming into power. People are more sensitive about their right to choose representatives and elect their government. Therefore, election engineering has become difficult. Hence, in an ordinary course of events, PTI is the favorite to win the KPK and Punjab Elections.https://republicpolicy.com/new-political-power-the-social-media-army-of-pti/
