The smog choking Pakistan’s major urban centers, particularly during the winter months, is a tragedy that has been building for decades. It is the result of poor policy implementation, systemic neglect, and the failure to tackle root causes such as transportation emissions, inadequate urban planning, and outdated infrastructure. The problem is not an isolated issue, but one that spans across major cities in Punjab, where air pollution levels regularly exceed hazardous thresholds, causing widespread public health problems, economic losses, and disruption to daily life.
A significant factor contributing to this environmental disaster is transportation. In Lahore, for example, transport emissions accounted for 83.15% of total emissions in 2022. This pattern is consistent across Punjab, where transportation has been the largest source of emissions for decades. Between 1990 and 2020, transport emissions represented 39% of the total emissions in the province, far surpassing other sectors like industry, agriculture, and energy. This highlights a longstanding failure in addressing the environmental impact of one of the most vital sectors in the economy: transport.
One of the most notable policy failures contributing to this crisis is the ineffective implementation of the Deemed Duty, a tax introduced in 2002 to finance upgrades in oil refineries. The policy was meant to improve fuel quality and reduce emissions by modernizing refinery infrastructure. However, despite raising billions of dollars—estimated to be around $9 billion over the years—these funds were mismanaged and diverted, with no meaningful upgrades in refinery technology. Instead of utilizing the collected tax for cleaner fuel production, the government allowed it to be used for unrelated purposes, leaving Pakistan dependent on outdated, polluting fuels. This failure in policy implementation has had devastating effects, not only on air quality but also on public health.
For example, while neighboring countries like India have already transitioned to Bharat Stage VI fuel standards, which have significantly reduced the sulfur content in diesel, Pakistan continues to use diesel with sulfur content as high as 500 parts per million (ppm). This is 50 times higher than global best practices. The reliance on such substandard fuels directly contributes to air pollution in urban centers, where vehicle emissions are responsible for over 80% of smog. The failure to upgrade refineries and adopt cleaner fuels is thus a critical and preventable cause of Pakistan’s worsening air quality.
The human and economic costs of this failure are staggering. The World Bank estimates that air pollution costs Pakistan nearly 6% of its GDP annually. This includes healthcare expenses, lost productivity, and the premature deaths caused by respiratory diseases linked to poor air quality. The health burden is severe, with over 128,000 deaths attributed to air pollution annually, a number that is likely much higher in reality. These costs are compounded by the frequent lockdowns and school closures during winter months due to hazardous smog, disrupting economic activity and education alike. Daily wage earners, in particular, suffer during these closures, losing much-needed income.
However, the issue goes beyond just fuel quality. The rapid growth of private vehicles, combined with the absence of efficient public transportation, has exacerbated the smog crisis. Between 2000 and 2020, the number of registered vehicles in Pakistan increased fivefold, from around 4 million to over 20 million. This rise in vehicle numbers is directly linked to the lack of affordable and efficient public transport options. As a result, private cars and motorcycles dominate the roads, contributing to traffic congestion and idling, which are major sources of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM2.5), key pollutants in smog formation.
Instead of addressing these root causes, successive governments have prioritized ill-conceived infrastructure projects such as flyovers and underpasses, which have failed to resolve the underlying issue of traffic congestion. These projects only shift bottlenecks from one location to another, making the problem worse and wasting valuable resources. Additionally, urban sprawl in the form of housing societies on the outskirts of major cities has further complicated the problem. These sprawling developments increase commute times, fuel consumption, and dust pollution, which combines with vehicular emissions to create the toxic haze that envelops cities in winter.
Globally, countries facing similar challenges have found ways to reduce smog through bold and coordinated actions. In 2013, China launched a successful campaign to reduce air pollution, implementing strict emissions standards, closing down polluting factories, and investing heavily in public transport and renewable energy. Beijing, once among the world’s most polluted cities, saw a nearly 40% reduction in air pollution within five years. Mexico City also turned its air quality around by investing in clean public transport and introducing vehicle emissions testing. These examples show that smog can be tackled through a combination of policy enforcement, public investment, and a commitment to cleaner technologies.
For Pakistan, a similar approach is essential. First and foremost, the government must address the mismanagement of the Deemed Duty funds, which have failed to improve the country’s fuel quality. These funds, which have been collected for over two decades, should be ring-fenced and used exclusively for upgrading refineries to produce cleaner fuels. The government must also implement stricter fuel quality standards, such as transitioning to low-sulfur diesel (10 ppm), and enforce annual emissions tests for all vehicles, aligning with international standards to curb emissions from the transport sector.
Furthermore, investing in public transportation must be a priority. Expanding metro systems, bus rapid transit (BRT) networks, and electric buses can reduce the reliance on private vehicles, which would directly cut down on emissions. Cities across the world have shown that mass transit systems are key to reducing pollution and improving urban mobility. The government must also focus on urban planning that promotes vertical expansion and mixed-use developments, reducing the need for long commutes and curbing urban sprawl.
Another critical measure would be to introduce a road tax on fuel-intensive and oversized vehicles, particularly in urban areas where they are unnecessary and contribute disproportionately to pollution. High taxes on these vehicles would discourage their use and reduce the pollution they generate. Moreover, creating car-free zones in high-traffic commercial areas would significantly improve air quality and encourage the use of public transport.
Beyond these measures, the government should address secondary sources of pollution, such as crop burning and industrial emissions. Subsidizing modern farming equipment can help eliminate the practice of crop burning, while stricter emissions controls on factories can reduce another significant source of pollution.
Finally, transparency and accountability are key to ensuring that policies are implemented effectively. Independent oversight mechanisms must be set up to ensure that funds are used as intended, and penalties must be enforced for refineries and industries that fail to comply with environmental standards.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s smog crisis is a complex issue that requires a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach. From improving fuel quality to investing in public transportation and urban planning, the government must take bold and decisive action. With the right policies, enforcement, and political will, Pakistan can begin to reduce air pollution, improve public health, and create a more sustainable future for its urban centers.
