Asif Mahmood

Urbanization is the trend of increasing urban population, where people move from rural areas to urban centres in search of better opportunities and a higher standard of living. The process of urbanization is driven by a variety of factors, such as population growth, migration, and economic development. As urbanization occurs, cities grow in size and complexity, leading to significant changes in the social, economic, and environmental structures of a country.

Urbanization has been a global phenomenon, with the world’s urban population increasing from 746 million in 1950 to 4.2 billion in 2018. The United Nations predicts that the world’s urban population will reach 68% by 2050, with most of the growth occurring in developing countries. In Pakistan, the share of the urban population has risen from 17% in 1951 to 41.7% in 2021, and projections indicate that half of the population will be living in urban areas in the next five years. This rapid urbanization presents a significant opportunity for the country, but it also poses several challenges.

One of the biggest challenges of urbanization is housing. As more people move to urban areas, the demand for housing increases, leading to a housing deficit in major cities. In Pakistan, the housing deficit is estimated to be around 5 million units, with nearly 50% of urbanites living in slums. The lack of affordable housing leads to overcrowding, which creates health and social problems. Another challenge is infrastructure development. Urban areas require extensive infrastructure, including roads, water supply, sanitation, and electricity. The lack of basic infrastructure in urban areas can lead to economic constraints and reduced growth potential.

Urbanization also poses environmental challenges. As cities grow, they consume more resources, generate more waste, and emit more pollution. The increased demand for resources can lead to environmental degradation, including deforestation, water scarcity, and air pollution. The environmental challenges of urbanization need to be addressed to ensure sustainable development.

Therefore, urbanization is a global trend that presents significant opportunities and challenges. Urbanization has the potential to drive economic growth and improve the standard of living for people. However, it also poses several challenges related to housing, infrastructure, and the environment. A comprehensive and coherent urban policy that prioritizes investments in infrastructure, basic facilities, and community-based services can help address these challenges and ensure sustainable urban development.

Pakistan’s rapid urbanization, propelled by population growth and net migration, not only presents a significant opportunity for the country but also a promising future. With the share of the urban population rising from 17 per cent in 1951 to 41.7 per cent in 2021 and projections indicating that half of the population will be living in urban areas in the next five years, Pakistan is on the brink of a transformative urban landscape.

While urban areas in Pakistan contribute significantly to the country’s GDP, tax revenues, and employed labour force, the current public policy towards urbanization has been a series of sporadic spurts without foundational stability or consistent planning and execution. This has led to large urban conglomerates with a poor picture, where between 35 and 50% of the urban population live in Katchi Abadis. The negative consequences of this approach are evident, highlighting the need for a new, comprehensive urban policy.

Furthermore, the shift from rural to urban areas in Pakistan is closely linked to the economy. Agriculture used to account for half of the country’s GDP in 1949-50, but it has decreased to 24% of GDP in 2020-21. In contrast, the manufacturing sector has increased to 29%, while the services sector has reached 55%. The agriculture sector, which used to account for 65% of the labour force, has declined to 38% in 2020. As a result, the rise in urban populations has increased the demand for employment in urban areas, which has led to a housing deficit of 5 million units in major cities, with nearly 50% of urbanites living in slums.

Pakistan ranks 69th out of 125 countries in basic infrastructure, causing economic constraints and reduced growth potential. The World Bank’s 2016 report suggested increasing infrastructure development investment from 3% to 10% of GDP through policy interventions and improved regulations. To address the chronic imbalance between demand and supply of infrastructure facilities, Pakistan needs an urban development policy that addresses infrastructure, improvised basic facilities, and community-based services to attract private sector and foreign investors.

Urban decay in Pakistan is characterized by low employment rates, unstable economic growth, incapable entrepreneurship, and weakening civilian institutions. The fastest growth rate is among the 15-25-year-olds, and while urban areas have a high education ratio, finding employment is challenging. This lack of employment leads to emotional distress, disappointment, and street violence, contributing to unemployment and a lack of opportunities for youth. The country also faces challenges in embracing diversity in views and virtues for the future.

The Planning Commission of Pakistan, recognizing the importance of urbanization, has taken a proactive stance and proposed a new economic growth paradigm. This paradigm urges the country to take ownership of urbanization and suggests revising city zoning laws to allow for more high-rise and mixed-use buildings. These changes, backed by the commission’s commitment, will generate more housing units, open up space for schools, shops, and markets, and increase service supply and commercial activity. The commission’s proactive stance is a reassuring sign of the country’s commitment to urban development.

The challenges of urban development in Pakistan are not uniform across the country. Different cities are grappling with unique issues. For instance, Lahore has seen growth due to personal interest from successive Chief Ministers, while Sialkot has witnessed local citizens and businesses creating infrastructure without government involvement. Karachi, which had its own City District Government structure, experienced better governance but has since suffered from neglect. Urban sprawl in Islamabad, Quetta, Faisalabad, and Rawalpindi is a concerning issue, with Peshawar, Gujranwala, Hyderabad, and Sukkur being the worst examples. Multan, on the other hand, has made some progress in infrastructure development. This diversity of challenges underscores the need for a tailored approach in the proposed urban policy.

The challenges of urbanization in Pakistan are significant, but they can be overcome with a comprehensive and coherent urban policy. This policy, tailored to the unique challenges faced by different cities and regions, should prioritize investments in infrastructure, basic facilities, and community-based services. It should also address the chronic imbalance between demand and supply of infrastructure facilities, create employment opportunities for youth, and promote diversity in views and virtues. The time for action is now.

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