The Challenges of PMLN and the Coming General Elections!

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Tahir Maqsood Chheena

If free and fair elections are held, PMLN will find it almost impossible to contest PTI in almost 2/3rd of the constituencies in Punjab.

PMLN has been the most successful political party in Pakistan. It has come into power four times. Then, Nawaz Sharif was sworn in three times as the prime minister of Pakistan, followed by Shahbaz Sharif, thus, taking the tally to four. PMLN had severe reservations about the elections of 2018, but somehow, they are enjoying their premiership by endorsing the same polls.

In early 2022, before a couple of months of change in government, PMLN was the most popular party in Punjab. The argument can easily be sanctioned as PMLN would win almost all by-elections. However, with the change in government and Shahbaz Sharif sworn in, PMLN became unpopular. The first reason was the sympathy wave created by Imran Khan. The public believed that Imran Khan should have completed the tenure. Then, the alliance of the PDM could not inspire the people. Also, PTI sold the foreign conspiracy narrative well, and the sudden increase in petroleum prices gave a thumping blow to the popularity of PMLN. The bye-elections in July 2022 stamped that PTI was riding on the popularity wave.

PMLN had developed a strong narrative around “VOTE KO IZZAT DO” in Pakistan. However, with them in power, the narrative was deceived. Then, their economic revival efforts were unsuccessful, meaning more people were dissatisfied with them. PMLN always developed the narrative that they work for the economy and spend more on the infrastructure. Even astonishingly, their voters would propagate that ” KHATA HAI TU LGATA BHI HAI”. Hence, PMLN could not withstand their democratic credentials or developmental portfolios. Pakistan’s inflation and human rights situation has created serious issues for PMLNs’ popularity.

PMLN has two fundamental challenges. One is of inflation and the other is human rights violations. Their popularity in Hazara and Swat regions has almost receded. They are no more in KPK and Sindh. They are also not in Baluchistan except for electives. They need to improve in North and South Punjab. They are also not competitive in central Punjab if PTI is allowed to run the elections fairly, as PMLN is finding it difficult even to compete in central and west Punjab. For the first time in the history of PMLN, they have gone so unpopular. Remember, in 2002, they were famous but were not allowed to contest elections independently. But now, they are not widespread and depend on the institutional support they have criticized for a long time.

The success of PMLN is directly proportionate to the level of permission PTI gets from the system or is able to manage it. If PTI is allowed to contest elections independently in Punjab, the PMLN might face an existential crisis. The popular wave in Punjab is anti-PDM. The fundamental challenges of PMLN are two: First is inflation, and the other is dictatorial governance. Inflation has defamed PMLN in poor and lower middle-class sections, whereas the middle class dislikes the authoritarian regime of the PMLN. Hence, the success of PMLN directly depends upon the level of targeting of PTI. Even in marginally free and fair elections, PMLN is not even close to PTI.

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