India’s $283 billion IT industry faces a seismic disruption after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a $100,000 annual fee on new H-1B visas, effective Sunday. The decision threatens to upend the decades-old onshore-offshore model of Indian IT giants such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, and Tech Mahindra, which collectively derive nearly 60% of revenues from U.S. clients.
India accounts for over 70% of H-1B beneficiaries, far ahead of China. Trump, accusing the sector of exploiting the visa system, warned that the “American Dream” for foreign workers could no longer be sustained. Analysts predict IT firms will now sharply curtail cross-border rotations, scale up offshore delivery from India, Mexico, and the Philippines, and expand hiring of U.S. citizens and green card holders.
Industry body Nasscom warned of ripple effects on America’s own innovation ecosystem, while experts cautioned the move could pressure IT margins and delay tech projects. Clients, they noted, are already demanding repricing, revised timelines, and reduced onshore staffing. Immigration lawyers said firms will now reserve H-1B filings for only “business-critical roles,” shrinking opportunities for thousands of Indian professionals.
Amid legal challenges and political uncertainty, analysts expect the growth of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) to accelerate, especially in Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and India, which already hosts more than half of the world’s GCCs. The shift could reshape global IT supply chains and redefine outsourcing strategies for years to come.
