Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently engaged in what he described as “very deep and concentrated” discussions with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his visit to Beijing on July 23-24. This marked Ukraine’s initial outreach to China to act as an intermediary with Russia since Moscow’s invasion in February 2022. Kuleba’s visit comes amidst Ukraine’s significant diplomatic push to create favourable international conditions for direct negotiations with the Kremlin.
Ukraine has expressed readiness to engage in talks “when Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith,” yet highlighted that the Russian side currently lacks such readiness. Meanwhile, China echoed sentiments that the “conditions and timing are not yet ripe” for these discussions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stipulated several conditions, including Ukraine surrendering occupied regions and committing to never join NATO, as prerequisites to a ceasefire and talks. Despite this, over 80 countries have voiced support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as foundational elements for peace negotiations, as demonstrated at a recent conference in Switzerland.
Amid these efforts, Ukraine plans to host a second peace conference this year and is presenting positions on various issues, including food security, energy, and prisoner exchanges, to the UN General Assembly. These moves aim to bolster global support ahead of negotiations with Russia. Additionally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated his willingness to meet with former US President Donald Trump to discuss steps towards achieving a fair and enduring peace.
Ukraine’s pursuit of a peace process is partly influenced by the weariness among its allies, with delays in military aid packages from the US Congress and Europe. Furthermore, Ukraine faces daunting realities on the ground, with the Russian military outnumbering and overpowering Ukrainian forces while making incremental territorial gains.
While Zelenskyy remains steadfast in his war objectives, he acknowledges the potential and necessity of diplomatic efforts. He emphasized that reclaiming all territories through force isn’t the sole solution, emphasizing the role of diplomacy in achieving peace.
Despite these developments, there remain uncertainties surrounding Russia’s response and reactions to Ukraine’s overtures for dialogue. Hungary’s recent involvement in peace efforts stirred a public dispute, leading to retaliatory actions with potential implications for Ukraine and its allies.
On the ground, while Ukraine has been able to maintain its frontline, Russian forces have made limited advancements in specific regions. Additionally, Ukraine has engaged in offensive actions within Russian and occupied territories, challenging Russian activities.
These ongoing diplomatic and military manoeuvres reflect Ukraine’s multifaceted approach to seeking a resolution to the protracted conflict with Russia.
