Russian President Vladimir Putin has delivered a stark message concerning the future of global nuclear arms control, asserting that Russia is actively developing a new generation of strategic weapons. Speaking at a summit in Tajikistan, Putin minimised the potential blow if the United States declines to extend the New START treaty’s warhead limits before its expiration next year. He conveyed that while the non-renewal “is not a big deal” for Moscow, which continues to test new nuclear capabilities, it would be a “shame” if the entire framework of strategic deterrence between the world’s two largest nuclear powers were to collapse. This viewpoint underscores Moscow’s readiness to operate outside of the established arms control regime, signalling a deepening commitment to an arms race already acknowledged by the Kremlin.
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The New START Treaty is currently set to expire in February, and despite Russia expressing a willingness to voluntarily extend its limitations, Washington has yet to formally agree. Putin’s remarks suggest that while a few months are enough for a decision, any lack of “goodwill” from the Americans would simply confirm the end of this decades-long regulatory structure. Critically, Putin also escalated the rhetoric surrounding nuclear testing, referencing for the second time in a week the possibility that other, unnamed nations may conduct a nuclear test. He warned that should any country take this step, Russia would immediately reciprocate, stating unequivocally: “if they do it, we’ll do the same.”
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Security experts warn that a single nuclear test could trigger a cascade effect, prompting other nuclear powers to follow suit and dramatically heightening global geopolitical tensions. Putin rationalized this dangerous prospect by noting the theoretical debate among experts over the necessity of repeat testing to confirm the effectiveness of aged missile fuel, even with advanced computer simulations. While acknowledging that such a test would be detrimental to curbing the arms race, he presented the extension of the New START Treaty as the most prudent path forward. The Russian leader’s posture reveals a firm commitment to maintaining nuclear parity through rapid modernisation, even at the cost of dissolving the last remaining bilateral arms control agreement with the United States.
