Masood Khalid Khan
The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s latest assessment of Pakistan’s wheat crop paints a picture that is both reassuring and worrying at the same time. On the surface, there is reason to celebrate: the harvest this year is 5 per cent higher than the five-year average. But beyond the headline lies a troubling reality — wheat acreage has shrunk by 6.5 per cent as farmers increasingly abandon the staple crop for alternatives that promise higher returns. This shift, while rational from the farmer’s point of view, raises serious questions about the future of Pakistan’s food security and the direction of its agricultural policies.
The decline in acreage was not entirely unexpected. The government’s decision to abolish the minimum support price, coupled with falling market rates during the sowing season, created a situation where farmers saw little incentive to grow wheat. For many, particularly smallholders struggling with rising input costs, it became an economic calculation: why continue with a crop that brings lower returns when other options are more profitable? The result is a structural shift in farming patterns, one that highlights the vulnerability of policy gaps in the agricultural sector.
The FAO report also draws attention to the plight of rain-fed farmers who account for nearly a fifth of all wheat growers in Pakistan. Unlike canal-irrigated regions that benefitted from above-average yields this year, farmers in dry areas remain at the mercy of weather patterns. Their losses in times of drought or water scarcity can be devastating, forcing many to switch to drought-resistant crops. This highlights an uncomfortable truth: Pakistan’s agricultural policy is still overly reliant on canal-irrigated systems, leaving large segments of the farming community exposed to climate risks.
Yet, the shrinking wheat acreage does not automatically mean that the withdrawal of government intervention through the support price was entirely flawed. In fact, there has long been a consensus among economists that state intervention had distorted the market for too long. But the problem lies in the piecemeal nature of reforms. Pulling the government out of the market without creating strong alternative systems risks destabilising agriculture markets further, leaving both farmers and consumers vulnerable. Reform in agriculture cannot be half-done; it must be comprehensive, well-structured, and forward-looking.
The real challenge before policymakers is to make wheat cultivation profitable even without price supports. For that, reforms must go beyond slogans and address the actual needs of farmers. A functioning and well-regulated market is essential to ensure stability and profitability. This requires interventions across several fronts. First, farmers need easy access to small soft loans that enable them to purchase inputs and invest in mechanisation. Access to credit remains limited in rural areas, where informal lenders exploit farmers with high interest rates, further undermining their capacity to compete.
Secondly, farmers must be provided with insurance coverage against the vagaries of weather. Pakistan’s agriculture is extremely climate-sensitive, and farmers in rain-fed areas are particularly exposed. Without protection, every drought or unexpected rainfall translates into economic ruin for thousands of households. Insurance mechanisms, supported by the state but delivered through private-sector participation, can provide farmers with a cushion against losses, making them more willing to stay with wheat cultivation.
Equally critical is the need for training in modern farming and irrigation techniques. Pakistan’s yields, even in canal-irrigated areas, lag behind global averages due to outdated practices. Extension services that actually reach farmers, along with the introduction of climate-smart technologies, can improve productivity significantly. The government must also remove the chokehold of exploitative middlemen who continue to dominate wheat marketing. By creating farmer cooperatives, strengthening farm-to-market linkages, and expanding procurement networks, the state can ensure that growers receive a fairer share of the value chain.
On the global front, Pakistan must rethink its wheat trade regime. An insular approach that isolates farmers from global markets only depresses incentives. A more liberalised trade policy, one that allows exporters and private players to connect farmers with international demand, could create stronger price signals and improve profitability. Linking local production with global supply chains can also serve as a hedge against domestic price crashes, thereby stabilising farm incomes.
The issue is not only about economics but also about food security. Wheat is Pakistan’s staple, central to the diet of the majority of its people. A continued decline in acreage risks creating supply shortages that will ultimately push up prices for consumers. If Pakistan is forced to import wheat at large scales, it will strain foreign reserves, increase vulnerability to global market fluctuations, and undermine economic stability. Thus, ensuring the sustainability of wheat production is not merely an agricultural question — it is a national security imperative.
The FAO’s findings are therefore a sobering reminder that reform in agriculture cannot be pursued half-heartedly. Removing the support price may have been necessary, but it must be matched with measures that create a functioning market, protect smallholders, and incentivise productivity. Without these, Pakistan risks repeating a vicious cycle of instability: farmers abandon wheat, acreage declines, imports rise, prices spike, and consumers suffer.
What Pakistan requires is a holistic vision of agricultural policy that integrates economics, climate adaptation, and food security. This means treating farmers not merely as producers to be regulated, but as citizens whose livelihoods are directly tied to the stability of the federation. The challenge is not insurmountable. Countries around the world have shown that agriculture can be modernised while keeping staples profitable. But it requires political will, institutional reforms, and a recognition that the survival of millions depends on getting it right.
The shrinking wheat acreage should serve as an early warning. If policymakers ignore it, Pakistan’s food security crisis will deepen in the coming years. If they act decisively, however, this moment can become the turning point towards building a resilient and sustainable agricultural economy. The choice, as always, lies with the state.
