Bilawal Kamran
Pakistan stands at a pivotal moment in its foreign policy trajectory. As global fault lines deepen between two emerging blocs—one led by China and Russia, and the other dominated by the United States and its Western allies—Islamabad must carefully navigate its strategic interests. Iran, increasingly a flashpoint in global geopolitics, sits at the center of this divide. In this highly sensitive context, any inclination by Pakistan to abandon its traditional regional allies, particularly China and Iran, in favor of supporting U.S. strategies against Tehran would be a strategic miscalculation with long-term consequences.
Iran is not just a neighboring state; it is a geographic, economic, and cultural partner sharing nearly 960 kilometers of border with Pakistan. Both nations have overlapping interests in regional stability, particularly in Afghanistan, the Gulf, and Central Asia. Their historic religious, linguistic, and civilizational ties further reinforce this strategic relationship. Moreover, Iran holds immense value for Pakistan as an energy partner and a transit state connecting Pakistan with broader West and Central Asian markets.
Pakistan’s relationship with China, meanwhile, has evolved into a multifaceted strategic partnership, anchored by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—a flagship project under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Iran plays a complementary role in this vision. China’s infrastructure and energy ambitions rely on Iran not only as a transit corridor but also as a counterweight to U.S. naval dominance in the Persian Gulf. Any move by Pakistan to align with U.S.-led efforts to isolate Iran would be seen as undermining the broader strategic architecture of the BRI, thereby destabilizing China’s long-term investment in Pakistan. Such a rift would undoubtedly strain Islamabad-Beijing relations at a time when Pakistan is seeking economic recovery and geopolitical balancing.
On the other side, the strategic posture of the U.S. and Israel toward Iran is one of clear containment. For decades, Washington has pursued a policy of economic strangulation and political isolation against Tehran, imposing harsh sanctions, orchestrating regional alliances like the Abraham Accords, and maintaining a military posture that often teeters on the edge of conflict. Israel’s strategy, more hardline and existential in tone, frames Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism and an imminent nuclear threat. These positions are inherently adversarial, leaving little room for cooperative regional diplomacy.
If Pakistan were to fall into the U.S. orbit on the Iran question, it would signal a dangerous departure from its traditional policy of regional neutrality and balance. The implications would be vast and damaging. Firstly, such alignment would be viewed by Iran as betrayal, likely resulting in diplomatic estrangement and increased border tensions. Iran has proven regional influence, including proxy networks and strategic leverage in border areas like Balochistan. Destabilizing ties with Tehran could inflame sectarian tensions within Pakistan and threaten border security.
Secondly, undermining relations with Iran would inevitably disrupt the delicate balance Islamabad has managed with China. CPEC’s success depends not only on internal political will and security but also on harmonious regional cooperation. China, which views Iran as a crucial partner in its West Asian strategy, would see Pakistan’s alignment with Washington on this issue as a breach of trust and strategic inconsistency. It could reduce China’s willingness to deepen economic cooperation and stall critical infrastructure projects.
Thirdly, pivoting toward U.S. strategic thinking risks alienating Pakistan from the broader bloc of non-Western Islamic nations, including Turkey, Qatar, and Malaysia—countries that have opposed American hegemony in the Muslim world and promoted multipolar diplomacy. Pakistan’s global legitimacy, especially in the Muslim world, is partially built on its identity as a sovereign state that resists foreign domination and upholds regional solidarity. Aligning with U.S. efforts to corner Iran would contradict this narrative, reducing Pakistan’s diplomatic weight in international forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
Furthermore, trusting the United States as a long-term strategic partner is a proposition fraught with risks. American foreign policy has often proven transactional and inconsistent, with a history of abrupt withdrawals and regime-change interventions that leave partner states in turmoil. The cases of Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan serve as cautionary tales. These states aligned with U.S. interests only to be left fragmented, unstable, and in some cases, abandoned when geopolitical winds shifted.
For Pakistan, the lesson is clear: strategic autonomy and regional alignment are not just desirable—they are essential. A foreign policy rooted in independent decision-making, economic pragmatism, and regional cooperation must remain the cornerstone of Pakistan’s global engagement. Supporting U.S. aims to isolate Iran would not only jeopardize this policy foundation but could also drag Pakistan into a regional confrontation that serves no national interest.
Iran remains a crucial neighbor, China an indispensable partner, and the broader regional bloc—Russia, Turkey, Central Asia—a constellation of natural allies. Abandoning these relationships in pursuit of fleeting approval from Washington would represent not only strategic naïveté but a betrayal of Pakistan’s core interests.
In conclusion, Pakistan must resist the temptation to align with American hostility toward Iran. Instead, it should deepen regional integration, foster stability through diplomacy, and maintain a balanced approach that protects its sovereignty and future. Pursuing American interests in Iran at the expense of its own regional alliances would be a grave strategic error—one Pakistan can neither afford nor recover from easily.
