Iran is on the verge of facing renewed UN-mandated sanctions within weeks unless it agrees to restart negotiations on its nuclear program and permit international inspections of its facilities. The diplomatic standoff has reached a critical point, with the process for restoring the sanctions potentially beginning at the end of this month, following a high-stakes meeting on Tuesday between Iranian and European officials.
The United Kingdom, France, and Germany (known as the E3) have formally notified the United Nations that they are prepared to trigger the ‘snapback’ mechanism if Iran does not reverse its course. This provision, built into the landmark 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions that were lifted a decade ago in exchange for verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear activities. Iran began scaling back its compliance and accelerating uranium enrichment after U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement during his first term.
The current stalemate intensified after Iran suspended nuclear negotiations with the U.S. following a 12-day war in June, during which American and Israeli forces bombed its nuclear sites. Since then, Tehran has denied access to inspectors from the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA. In a letter to the UN Security Council last week, the E3 foreign ministers stated that Iran had violated “the near entirety of its JCPOA commitments” and set a final deadline for a diplomatic solution.
A successful ‘snapback’ would automatically restore all UN Security Council sanctions that were in place from 2006 to 2010. These measures include a comprehensive arms embargo, severe restrictions on uranium enrichment, and a ban on acquiring technology for its ballistic missile program, all of which previously placed immense pressure on Iran’s financial and oil sectors. The process takes 30 days, and European diplomats are reportedly keen to initiate it before Russia assumes the presidency of the Security Council in October and could potentially obstruct the move.
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Tehran has responded defiantly, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warning his European counterparts of “serious consequences” should they trigger the snapback. An Iranian official stated that the country is preparing for “the worst scenarios,” with options under consideration that include a full withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), further limiting cooperation with the IAEA, and designating the E3 as “hostile states,” which could authorize Iranian forces to inspect their vessels in the Persian Gulf.
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Analysts predict that the reimposition of sanctions would undoubtedly damage Iran’s already beleaguered economy, primarily by creating problems with euro liquidity needed for essential imports like pharmaceuticals. However, the overall impact may be mitigated, as experts expect that key economic partners such as China, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq will likely continue to purchase Iranian oil and facilitate trade, thereby blunting the full force of the renewed sanctions.
