Republic Policy is collecting feedbacks, analysing political trends, dissecting areas & communities & collecting primary data of NA & PA constituencies to conduct the national and provincial survey of constituencies for coming general elections, 2023. The final field data collection will be done, once elections and candidates are announced by the political parties.
The primary feedback is that there is a political wave in Pakistan & that too is largely a sympathy wave. It seems sympathy & inflation will determine the outcome of next general elections, if all contenders find a level playing field & elections are free & transparent.
Then, evaluating feedbacks of communities, gender groups, professions, age brackets, residencies & influentials ( socially+ politically+ religiously , it’s evident that inflation is harming PDM & PTI is riding on a sympathy wave.
Irrespective of the merit of the feedback, another feedback is that people are arguing that IK is one & the rest of system is working against him. Then, youth especially girls are tilting towards IK. Shias & Brelvi are also supporting IK in much numbers. No competition in KPK. It’s PTI vs electables in Punjab. Pathans , all over Pakistan whether Pashtun or non-pashtun favoring IK. Remember Pathans are the largest ethnic group in Pakistan followed by Baluch. Baluch live in numbers in South Punjab & it’s PTI vs electables in South Punjab. Most Kashmiris in central Punjab are with PMLN. Jaats in central & western Punjab are divided between PML N & PTI. Pothohar is more with IK. PTI winning Hazara & Islam Abad. PTI is strong in Peshawar valley, Malakand division, central & southern KPK. PTI is gaining in Ex-FATA & Pashtun belt in Baluchistan. PTI has sentiments in Karachi excluding Baluch & rural areas, if PTI generates a wave, they can win in Karachi & urban parts of Haider Abad. Rural Sindh belongs to PPPP because they have electables & GDA is falling apart. PTI is gaining but not enough to beat PPPP.
Pakistan is a federation. Thus, there are ethnic, linguistic, regional tendencies. Then there is rural-urban divide. There are generation gaps as youth dominates the population. The society has a sectarian divide alongwith economic and cultural divisions. Therefore, it’s not easy to measure the political trend of a federation & that too in a constituency electoral elections where electables are as important as political parties.
However, political survey is methodical measurement of a trend , that reflects only a trend. Elections are the real surveys.
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