Shahid Waqar
The return of the ambassadors of Pakistan and Iran to their respective posts in Islamabad and Tehran is a positive sign of de-escalation and reconciliation between the two neighbouring countries after a brief but intense period of hostility and mistrust. The diplomatic crisis was triggered by a series of cross-border attacks by both sides, targeting militant groups that operate in the restive Baloch region along the border. The attacks resulted in civilian casualties, mutual condemnation, and the recall of the envoys.
The main reason for the escalation was the growing frustration and suspicion of both countries over the alleged support and shelter of the other countries for the insurgents that threatened their security and stability. Pakistan accused Iran of harbouring and aiding the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), two separatist groups that seek independence for the Pakistani province of Balochistan. Iran accused Pakistan of harbouring and aiding Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), a Sunni militant group that seeks autonomy for the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan.
Both countries have a long history of cooperation and friendship based on their shared cultural, religious, and historical ties. However, they also have divergent interests and alignments in the region and beyond, which sometimes create tensions and challenges. Pakistan is a predominantly Sunni Muslim country with close ties to Saudi Arabia and the United States. Iran is a predominantly Shia Muslim country with close ties to Syria and Russia. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state with a longstanding rivalry with India. Iran is a non-nuclear state with a longstanding rivalry with Israel. Pakistan is a key player in the Afghan peace process, with influence over the Taliban. Iran is a key player in the Syrian civil war, with influence over the Assad regime.
The recent escalation between Pakistan and Iran was also influenced by the broader geopolitical context, especially the rising tensions and conflicts in the Middle East and beyond. Iran has been involved in several proxy wars and confrontations with its regional and international adversaries, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Pakistan has been involved in several border skirmishes and clashes with its neighbours, such as India and Afghanistan. Both countries have faced economic and political challenges, such as sanctions, inflation, and protests. Both countries have also faced the threat of terrorism and extremism, such as ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The de-escalation between Pakistan and Iran was achieved through a combination of diplomatic and military measures, as well as public statements and gestures. Both countries expressed their desire to resolve their differences through dialogue and cooperation and to restore their historic relations. Both countries also acknowledged their mutual security concerns and interests and agreed to coordinate and collaborate on counterterrorism and other issues. Both countries also demonstrated their goodwill and confidence-building by exchanging their ambassadors, conducting joint naval exercises, and holding phone conversations between their foreign ministers.
The future of Pakistan-Iran relations depends on several factors, such as the outcome of the upcoming elections in both countries, the progress of the nuclear talks between Iran and the world powers, the stability of the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East, and the role of other regional and global actors. Both countries have the potential and the opportunity to enhance their bilateral cooperation and partnership based on their common interests and challenges. However, they also face the risk and the pressure of further escalation and confrontation based on their conflicting interests and challenges. Therefore, both countries need to maintain a balanced and pragmatic approach and avoid any actions or statements that could undermine their trust and friendship.
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