Barrister Qazi Ahmed Naveed
According to Republic Policy, a research organization, as per feedback from 266 constituencies of the National Assembly, the turnout in the 2024 general elections is likely to exceed 60%. This means that 80 million out of 128.58 million votes will be cast.
According to our popular vote survey, PTI is ahead in every district of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore, if the turnout in each constituency of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa exceeds 60%, PTI will remain competitive even without the support of electables and traditional votes.
If PTI volunteers, voters, and supporters believe that their constituency candidate is weak, then even if the popular vote is cast and the turnout exceeds 60%, even a weak candidate can win.
Therefore, according to RP analysis, PTI can compete in every seat from NA-1 Chitral to NA-189 Rajanpur if PTI voters cast their votes in any case.
In Sindh, PTI is ahead in the popular vote in Karachi and Hyderabad. In addition, it has a popular vote among the Urdu-speaking community in Sukkur and Mirpur Khas. It also has an influence in Tharparkar among the Ghuthia community and the Hindu community.
However, PTI can compete in 22 National Assembly seats in Karachi. In Karachi, PTI needs to work hard because it is popular among the Urdu-speaking, Pashtun, Punjabi, Baloch, and other communities in the popular vote. Suppose Karachi’s turnout reaches even 40%. In that case, PTI can win the remaining districts other than Kimari and Malir due to its advantage in the popular vote, and it can also compete in Kimari and Malir. PTI also has the advantage in Karachi that the votes in the constituency will be divided among five political parties. Since PTI is ahead in the popular vote and has influence in all communities, if it can get its popular vote cast, it can be successful in winning.
If it can get its popular vote cast, PTI can perform well out of 16 seats of Balochistan, including Quetta and the Pashtun belt. It is important for PTI that every voter and supporter cast their vote, regardless of the position that appears to be in the constituency.
Therefore, the success of PTI will depend on its volunteers and supporters, how they convert the popular vote into the ballot box and increase the turnout by getting votes cast at every polling station.
Republic Policy is a research organization whose purpose is to provide basic political information to political parties, voters, supporters, and the public.
Critical Evaluation:
The Republic Policy Organization (RPO) is a research organization that aims to provide political information to various stakeholders in Pakistan. In its report on the 2023 general elections, RPO claims that based on the feedback from 266 constituencies of the National Assembly, the voter turnout is expected to surpass 60%. This implies that out of 128.58 million registered voters, 80 million will cast their ballots.
RPO also conducted a popular vote survey, which shows that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party is leading in every district of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. This suggests that if the voter turnout in these provinces exceeds 60%, PTI will be able to compete effectively even without the backing of electables and traditional voters.
Moreover, RPO argues that even if PTI volunteers, voters, and supporters perceive their constituency candidates as weak, they can still win if the voter turnout is high enough. Therefore, RPO concludes that PTI can compete in every seat from NA-1 Chitral to NA-189 Rajanpur if PTI voters exercise their right to vote in any case.
In Sindh province, RPO reports that PTI is ahead in the popular vote in Karachi and Hyderabad cities. Additionally, it has a strong support base among the Urdu-speaking community in Sukkur and Mirpur Khas districts. It also has some influence in Tharparkar district among the Ghuthia and Hindu communities.
However, RPO acknowledges that PTI faces tough competition in 22 National Assembly seats in Karachi. RPO advises PTI to work hard in Karachi because it enjoys popularity among the Urdu-speaking, Pashtun, Punjabi, Baloch, and other communities in the popular vote. RPO estimates that if the voter turnout in Karachi reaches at least 40%, PTI can secure the majority of the seats except for Kimari and Malir, where it can still put up a fight. RPO also points out that PTI has an advantage in Karachi because the votes in the constituencies will be split among five political parties. Since PTI is ahead in the popular vote and has a presence in all communities, RPO believes that if it can mobilize its supporters to vote, it can achieve a victory in Karachi.
Furthermore, RPO predicts that PTI can perform well out of 16 seats of Balochistan province, including Quetta and the Pashtun belt, if it can get its popular vote cast. RPO emphasizes that it is crucial for PTI that every voter and supporter cast their vote, regardless of the apparent situation in the constituency.
Therefore, RPO asserts that PTI’s success will depend on its volunteers and supporters, how they translate the popular vote into the ballot box, and how they increase turnout by casting votes at every polling station.
Recommendations:
The 2023 general elections in Pakistan will require political parties to focus on the polling station level, besides the central, constituency, and UC levels. The Election Commission of Pakistan has made the final polling scheme available on its website on Form 28, which indicates the number and location of polling stations in each constituency.
To win elections, political parties have to establish a strong network of volunteers at the polling station level. These volunteers have to assist voters in registering, informing, and motivating them to vote. They also have to manage the campaign and voting day activities at the polling station level.
The passage above gives a checklist of things that volunteers have to know to perform their tasks effectively. They have to know the gender-wise distribution of voters at their polling station, the core message of their party, and the practical aspects of voting day. They have to educate voters about the election symbols, the colour of the ballot paper, the way to put the seal, stamp the ballot, fold the belt, and the way to obtain the results on Form 45. Republic Policy also claims that 50 volunteers can secure a polling station with a comprehensive campaign and voting day management.
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