Mubashar Nadeem

The India-Pakistan bilateral relationship has entered yet another phase of heightened hostility, but this decline cannot be understood in isolation. The broader global landscape is undergoing a major transformation, driven primarily by the rise of China as a strategic counterweight to the West. As global alliances shift, Pakistan and China find themselves increasingly aligned—militarily and diplomatically—against a common adversary: India. Meanwhile, the once-staunch U.S. support for India now appears ambiguous and inconsistent, especially under the unpredictable foreign policy of former President Donald Trump.

For years, India tried to erase the Kashmir dispute from the international agenda. Following its unilateral actions in 2019, including the revocation of Article 370, New Delhi believed it had successfully removed the issue from Western discourse. However, recent developments show that Pakistan has succeeded in re-internationalizing the Kashmir issue, ensuring it remains part of global diplomatic conversations.

India’s longstanding strategy to isolate Pakistan—labeling it a hub of terrorism, leveraging institutions like FATF, and discouraging international cricket in Pakistan—initially yielded some results. But that narrative has since lost much of its potency. Pakistan’s domestic recalibrations, particularly distancing from extremist elements and focusing on regional stability, have helped it regain international credibility. The once-dominant “Islamic terrorism” narrative has evolved; it is no longer used as a blunt instrument to discredit Pakistan in international forums.

The recent Pahalgam incident is a case in point. Despite having no role in the tragedy, Pakistan became a target of Indian military aggression. India struck civilian sites within Pakistan, branding them as “terrorist camps,” a claim largely unsubstantiated. This blatant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity was expected to go unanswered—an assumption India grossly miscalculated. Pakistan’s measured but firm response not only underscored its military competence but also reinforced its commitment to self-defense within the bounds of international law.

India must accept a fundamental reality: Pakistan is not Syria or Afghanistan. Its institutions, military capabilities, and global positioning make it a state that cannot be bullied or undermined through force or media disinformation. Moreover, Indian media’s persistent spread of fabricated stories and inflammatory rhetoric has significantly damaged India’s international credibility. Independent observers, journalists, and analysts across the globe now question New Delhi’s narrative more critically than ever before.

Politically, this turn of events has created significant headwinds for the Modi government. Independent journalists and global media outlets have begun scrutinizing his administration’s aggressive posture. The fallout may extend to domestic politics, potentially undermining Modi’s grip ahead of the critical Bihar state elections. While his government once used national security narratives to consolidate power, public fatigue and growing skepticism about India’s militaristic adventures could prove politically costly.

Conversely, Pakistan seems to be entering a phase of relative domestic calm. Internal conflict has receded, and the military—often the center of controversy—has begun to rebuild its public image. This improved perception could play a crucial role in stabilizing the country, both politically and socially. However, the government in Islamabad still suffers from a lack of strong public support. For lasting stability, Pakistan’s leadership must adopt a more inclusive, responsive governance model that unites rather than divides.

On the international front, Pakistan is gradually regaining diplomatic ground. Countries like China and Turkey continue to support Pakistan’s position on critical issues, including Kashmir. Meanwhile, India’s main backers—Israel and, increasingly, the Afghan Taliban—lack the global legitimacy and influence to offset Pakistan’s growing network of allies. While some elements in the EU and the U.S. still tilt toward India, the days of unqualified Western support for New Delhi appear to be waning.

Donald Trump’s unconventional approach to South Asia during his presidency also contributed to leveling the diplomatic playing field. His transactional worldview led to a more balanced engagement with both India and Pakistan, a marked departure from the overt pro-India stance of previous administrations. This relative neutrality helped expose the structural flaws in India’s diplomatic narrative and allowed Pakistan space to make its case on the global stage.

Geopolitically, India is no longer operating in a vacuum. The U.S.-China trade war, rather than isolating China, has strengthened its economic influence, especially in the Global South. As Washington retreats from global engagement and focuses inward, its strategic investment in India as a regional counterweight is losing momentum. This development inherently weakens India’s regional leverage and elevates the strategic importance of Pakistan within China’s Belt and Road framework.

However, these dynamics remain fluid. India is unlikely to accept its declining clout passively. It may increase support to destabilizing forces within Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan through groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Such moves could reignite regional instability and strain Pakistan’s internal security apparatus. Similarly, India’s improving relations with the Afghan Taliban—once viewed as Pakistan’s sphere of influence—could complicate Islamabad’s efforts to stabilize its western frontier and foster better Pak-Afghan ties.

Yet, the events of May 2025 have underscored Pakistan’s ability to weather strategic shocks and reassert its role as a responsible state actor. That said, the country’s most pressing vulnerability remains its fragile economy. No amount of diplomatic gain can offset economic instability. Urgent reforms in governance, taxation, and public spending are not only desirable—they are imperative. Without a strong economic foundation, Pakistan’s regional and international gains could unravel.

Moreover, national unity must be the top priority. Political infighting and divisiveness have historically weakened Pakistan at critical junctures. Bridging political divides and fostering consensus on issues of national interest are prerequisites for sustained progress. While the military may enjoy renewed legitimacy, enduring public support must be built on the back of inclusive governance, transparent policymaking, and economic opportunity.

Finally, the global perception of India is also undergoing a stark transformation. Once lauded as the world’s largest democracy, India is increasingly viewed as an opportunistic, aggressive actor on the international stage. Its obsession with military projection and reliance on misinformation have exposed deep contradictions in its democratic façade. The reckless militarism that now defines its foreign policy has eroded the credibility it once enjoyed. If it continues down this path, India risks alienating even its most loyal allies.

In conclusion, Pakistan stands at a crossroads—bolstered by diplomatic resilience and internal recovery, yet threatened by economic fragility. India, meanwhile, must reckon with the diminishing returns of its coercive diplomacy and confront the growing skepticism about its intentions and methods. The new global order demands cooperation, transparency, and responsible statecraft. Whether India and Pakistan can rise to this challenge will determine the region’s fate for years to come.