Khalid Masood Khan
The ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan have taken a troubling new turn—one that extends beyond military provocations and now threatens Pakistan’s critical water resources. Over the past weekend, India, without any prior notice—a violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—significantly restricted the flow of water from the Chenab River into Pakistan. This deliberate act, as noted by Pakistani officials, undermines the core provisions of the treaty, which mandates both nations to inform each other of any major alterations to river flows.
According to Punjab’s irrigation authorities, India has been diverting Pakistan’s share of water to fill three of its reservoirs, collectively holding around 1.2 million acre-feet (MAF) of water. What makes the situation even more alarming is the possibility that India could release this stored water suddenly and without warning. Such a move could cause devastating floods downstream in Pakistan, wreaking havoc on agriculture and human settlements. Officials have expressed grave concerns that if India continues to store water without releasing it, Pakistan’s agricultural regions could face severe water shortages for an additional four to five days.
Further compounding the issue, India has begun expanding the water-holding capacity of its Salal and Baglihar hydropower projects located in Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. International media, including Reuters, have reported that ‘reservoir flushing’ is being carried out at these facilities, a process aimed at increasing their capacity to retain water. If other Indian dams follow suit, Pakistan’s access to its rightful water share under the IWT could be drastically curtailed in the future.
This alarming situation demands continuous vigilance from Pakistan’s authorities. The Chenab River is a lifeline for vast agricultural lands in Punjab, and India’s calculated moves appear to be a strategy to sabotage Pakistan’s food and water security. If these actions escalate, the water dispute could evolve into a significant trigger for broader conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
The Modi-led Indian government, emboldened by its growing economic influence and international attention, has adopted an increasingly aggressive posture. The unilateral decision to ‘suspend’ the Indus Waters Treaty—a historic and resilient agreement that has survived multiple wars and crises—has thrown the status of this vital pact into uncertainty. This is not only a reckless gamble but also a dangerous precedent that could destabilize regional peace.
Water is not just a resource for Pakistan; it is the backbone of its economy and essential for the survival of its people. Any attempt by India to manipulate or restrict water supplies in violation of the treaty is viewed by Pakistan as a direct act of aggression. Islamabad has made it unequivocally clear that tampering with water flows is a red line, and further provocations could push Pakistan into considering all available options—including kinetic measures.
Pakistan is already grappling with the dire consequences of climate change, which has intensified challenges such as droughts, floods, and food insecurity. In this fragile context, any external threat to Pakistan’s water resources amplifies the existential risks faced by its population. Therefore, any foreign act of aggression that compromises Pakistan’s water security must be met with decisive resistance.
Moving forward, Pakistan must not waste any time in launching a robust legal offensive against India’s unlawful actions. It is imperative to take the matter to international legal forums to challenge India’s ‘suspension’ of the IWT and seek enforcement of its provisions. Legal pressure should be accompanied by sustained diplomatic efforts, engaging key international stakeholders to ensure that India is held accountable for any violations of the treaty.
Diplomacy remains a crucial avenue to prevent the current crisis from spiraling into a full-blown disaster. The international community should be reminded that the IWT has long been hailed as a model of peaceful conflict resolution between two adversaries. Despite wars and numerous disputes, the treaty has endured—until now. Allowing one party to unilaterally dismantle such a pivotal agreement would set a dangerous precedent, not just for South Asia but for global water-sharing arrangements.
It is also essential for Pakistan to mobilize its domestic resources to prepare for any potential water shocks. Emergency planning, investment in water conservation, and efficient management of existing water resources should be prioritized to mitigate the impact of any future disruptions. Public awareness campaigns can also help communities understand the gravity of the situation and encourage water-saving practices at the grassroots level.
The Modi government must recognize that its aggressive tactics may yield short-term political gains at home, but they carry immense long-term risks. Provoking a water conflict with Pakistan, especially under the shadow of nuclear deterrence, is a perilous game that threatens not only bilateral peace but also regional stability. India must be made to realize that international commitments, like the IWT, are not optional or subject to political whims—they are binding obligations that must be honored in both letter and spirit.
In conclusion, the water dispute has emerged as yet another flashpoint in the already volatile India-Pakistan relationship. While the immediate priority for Pakistan is to challenge India’s recent maneuvers through legal and diplomatic channels, the broader objective should be to safeguard national water security against future threats. The Indus Waters Treaty must be defended vigorously, and international pressure should be brought to bear on India to adhere to its commitments. At the same time, Pakistan must brace itself for the possibility that water, once a symbol of cooperation, could become a new frontier of conflict in South Asia if aggressive posturing by India continues unchecked.
