Japan once had one of the lowest Covid-19 mortality rates, however, the rate has been trending upwards since the end of 2022, hitting an all-time high in January 2023. Despite imposing strict pandemic restrictions, the country’s low immunity and aging population is driving a surge in coronavirus deaths. Most of the recent fatalities are elderly people with underlying health conditions.
Virologist Hitoshi Oshitani says that the emergence of immune-escaping variants and sub-variants, as well as the waning of immunity, is making it difficult to prevent infections. He also notes that smaller prefectures and rural areas have a higher proportion of elderly people compared to the national average, which may contribute to the increasing trend of deaths.
Epidemiologist Kenji Shibuya highlights that elderly people who get infected in nursing homes or in community clusters are not receiving prompt treatment due to the overwhelming caseload at government-designated hospitals. He has called for Covid to be downgraded and treated as a form of influenza, allowing all clinics and hospitals to treat patients with the virus.
While some experts believe the death rate could be inflated due to under-reporting of Covid cases, physician Yasuharu Tokuda says that Japan’s low natural immunity, acquired through infection, is causing more deaths. He also says that natural immunity is stronger than immunity obtained from vaccination.
Experts are divided on the trajectory of Covid-19 in Japan, with some expecting a bigger surge in deaths while others believe future rates of infection and death will be lower. Affordable antiviral drugs are still not widely available, which may contribute to a surge in deaths in the months ahead, according to Dr. Oshitani
