The recent attack by Iran on Israel has raised the spectre of regional conflict in the Middle East, with fears of a wider war that could drag in Iran and its allies as well as Western countries such as the United States. The violence between Israel and Iran-backed forces has been escalating for the past six months, with each incident marking a slow climb up a rung of the escalation ladder. While Israel has been more adventurous in widening the bounds of the “red lines”, Iran’s attack was the first by a foreign state on Israel since 1991. However, the majority of the projectiles were drones that took hours to travel from Iran, and all were shot down.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to allow a direct attack from Iran without a response, as deterrence is vital to maintain the perception that Israel is the primary military power in the Middle East. The United States and other allies are trying to persuade Netanyahu not to respond to Iran and risk launching a war that many would feel obligated to participate in. While everyone wants to avoid an all-out war that would be devastating for all involved and the wider region, each side has its own desired outcomes that could potentially lead to the conflict they’re all eager to avoid.
Even if both sides want to avoid a full-fledged conflict, miscalculations can always happen, and best-laid plans can often go awry. The potential for miscalculation is high, and history has shown that even if all parties involved don’t want an all-out war, it can still happen. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 saw the US and the former Soviet Union get dangerously close to what could have been a disastrous nuclear war. A resolution was eventually reached, averting the danger, even as the two countries remained foes for decades afterwards. The same could happen today, but any resolution to avert the current crisis cannot simply be between Iran and Israel. It has to go to the root of why the region finds itself on the brink of war today: Israel’s devastating war on Gaza.
The inability of world powers to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the most intractable of the region’s problems, will continue to be a source of instability. For as long as it remains unresolved and the illegal occupation of Palestinian territory continues, the potential for the region to descend into war will remain, waiting for whatever the latest spark will be.
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