Pakistan’s Fertility Rate Challenge: Progress Amid Persistent Obstacles

Dr Bilawal kamran

The global fertility rate has seen a remarkable decline over the past few decades, dropping from 4.8 births per woman in 1970 to 2.2 by 2024. This shift is considered one of the most significant demographic transformations in history. However, not all nations have kept pace with this global trend. Pakistan, the second-most-populous country in South Asia, stands as a compelling example of both progress and ongoing challenges in reducing birth rates to sustainable levels.

In recent years, Pakistan has made considerable strides in lowering its fertility rate, which has dropped from six births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 today. While this reduction represents significant progress, it hides a range of underlying disparities within the country. Urban women, for example, have far fewer children on average than those living in rural areas. At the same time, the adolescent birth rate, at 40 per 1,000 women aged 15-19, remains alarmingly high. These statistics highlight that while fertility rates are falling overall, the journey towards reaching a replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman seems distant. According to current trends, Pakistan is not expected to achieve this milestone until 2079 — decades later than its neighbors. In contrast, Bangladesh’s fertility rate has already dropped to 2.14, and the country is projected to reach replacement-level fertility by 2026. India, too, achieved replacement-level fertility as early as 2020.

This gap in fertility rates between Pakistan and its regional neighbors poses a serious challenge to the country’s development prospects. High fertility rates put immense pressure on public services, resources, and the economy. However, with effective management, a falling birth rate could lead to what is known as a “demographic dividend” — a large, working-age population with fewer dependents. This demographic shift can drive economic growth, much like it did in East Asia over the past few decades. Achieving this requires a much stronger approach from Pakistan’s policymakers.

One of the main obstacles in achieving a demographic dividend is the lack of access to family planning, particularly in rural areas. While family planning services are available in some parts of Pakistan, many women still do not have the autonomy to make decisions about their reproductive health. Cultural and social barriers, including the persistence of child marriage, significantly hinder progress. Despite being illegal, child marriage remains prevalent in many parts of the country, exacerbating the challenges to reducing fertility rates. Furthermore, Pakistan’s female labor force participation rate remains one of the lowest in the world, limiting women’s potential contribution to the economy and society.

To address these challenges, the Pakistani government must prioritize family planning services and integrate them into the primary healthcare system. Making family planning accessible to all women, especially in rural and underserved areas, is critical to achieving a sustainable fertility rate. Additionally, expanding access to education for girls and increasing women’s participation in the workforce are essential for empowering women to make informed decisions about their reproductive health. Providing women with more opportunities to participate in the workforce would not only reduce fertility rates but also boost the country’s overall economic development.

Religious leaders also have an important role to play in shifting cultural attitudes toward contraception. In many parts of Pakistan, religious beliefs influence decisions about family size and the use of birth control. Engaging religious leaders in promoting family planning could help break down cultural barriers to contraception, making it more socially acceptable and accessible to a broader population. This approach, although sensitive, could be key to achieving significant progress in fertility reduction.

Moreover, improving data collection and analysis is essential for tailoring interventions that address specific needs. Data on fertility trends, family planning practices, and women’s reproductive health are vital for understanding the underlying causes of high fertility rates and identifying the most effective ways to address them. Better data would enable policymakers to design targeted interventions that address the unique challenges faced by different regions, communities, and socio-economic groups within Pakistan.

While these solutions are not complex or beyond reach, the implementation of such policies has been hindered by weak governance and deep-rooted conservative social attitudes. Effective policy implementation requires strong political will and consistent leadership. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s history of lackluster governance has often led to inefficiencies and delays in addressing critical issues like fertility control. To ensure that Pakistan does not miss out on the potential benefits of a demographic dividend, the next decade could prove to be crucial.

Bangladesh provides an inspiring example of what can be achieved with determined and focused policy efforts. The country’s success in significantly reducing its fertility rate in a relatively short period is a testament to the effectiveness of comprehensive family planning initiatives and women’s empowerment policies. Pakistan can take cues from its neighbor’s achievements by prioritizing family planning, improving women’s education and employment opportunities, and fostering a more inclusive and progressive approach to reproductive health.

However, unless there is sustained political will and a commitment to addressing the cultural and societal barriers to fertility reduction, Pakistan risks squandering its demographic potential. The coming years will be decisive in determining whether the country can successfully navigate its fertility transition and unlock the economic and social benefits that come with a lower birth rate.

In conclusion, Pakistan faces both opportunities and challenges in addressing its fertility rate. While the country has made progress, significant disparities remain between urban and rural areas, and high adolescent birth rates continue to impede further progress. If the government takes a more aggressive approach to family planning, empowers women through education and employment, and engages religious leaders in promoting contraception, Pakistan could overcome these challenges and reap the benefits of a demographic dividend. However, the window of opportunity is closing, and without strong leadership and a shift in social attitudes, Pakistan risks falling behind its neighbors and failing to reach replacement-level fertility within a reasonable timeframe. The next decade will be critical for determining the success or failure of Pakistan’s fertility transition and its overall development trajectory.

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