Dr Bilawal Kamran
The world today faces a complex mix of opportunities and risks, shaped by rapid technological advances and resurgent great-power rivalries, the early optimism after the Cold War has given way to a more uncertain global environment, the United States and other nations have struggled to develop a long-term vision for peace and stability, the shock of 9/11, the rise of China, Russia’s aggressive policies, and an increasingly volatile international security environment have pushed long-term strategic thinking to the margins, domestic populism and nationalism further reduce political appetite for global cooperation, yet the risks facing humanity are too great to let these immediate pressures crowd out visionary thinking, addressing these challenges will require a structured, integrated approach that focuses on both reducing existential risks and promoting cooperative engagement among nations.
The first priority must be to resolve or mitigate major territorial disputes in strategically sensitive regions, unresolved disputes among great powers, including Russia’s near abroad, Taiwan, and Ukraine, continue to pose the highest risk of escalation into large-scale conflict, historical experience demonstrates that even conflicts with seemingly limited stakes can spiral into wars with catastrophic consequences, World War I illustrates how local disputes can escalate globally, similarly, in the current era, unchecked tensions in Eastern Europe or East Asia could ignite a wider confrontation involving nuclear-armed states, stabilizing these disputes requires creativity, diplomacy, and willingness from all parties to explore innovative arrangements, for example, Ukraine’s security could be ensured without full NATO membership through a new security architecture, China and Taiwan might explore federated or confederated arrangements that preserve autonomy while reducing the risk of war, progress will be slow and difficult, yet even the process of negotiation can foster a sense of shared purpose and reduce the intensity of rivalries.
The second pillar is the management of technological risks, AI, advanced microbiology, and nuclear weapons present unique and growing dangers, the rapid development of AI could lead to destabilizing applications, including cyberattacks, autonomous weapons, and the creation of disinformation campaigns, microbiology offers the potential for revolutionary medical advances, but also raises the risk of engineered pathogens that could cause pandemics, combining AI with microbiology could enable malicious actors to design highly lethal diseases, these risks are not theoretical, leading experts warn of scenarios where poorly regulated technology could result in outcomes comparable to global catastrophe, nuclear weapons continue to pose an existential threat, while deterrence has largely prevented their use since 1945, new dynamics involving multiple nuclear powers require updated arms control frameworks, managing these threats demands international cooperation, transparency, and creative verification mechanisms, societal verification, screening for high-risk technology, and AI-assisted monitoring can help detect illicit activities without infringing on civil liberties, nations must cooperate rather than compete zero-sum, failing to do so increases the likelihood of dangerous misuse and accidents.
Third, transnational threats demand urgent attention, climate change, pandemics, resource depletion, and environmental degradation affect all nations and cannot be solved unilaterally, global warming will worsen without coordinated action, some mitigation strategies may require geoengineering, which is feasible only if great powers agree on global norms, pandemics are inevitable in a highly connected world, proactive investment in vaccine research, early warning systems, and protective equipment is necessary to reduce human and economic costs, civil conflicts in regions like the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia continue to cause massive human suffering and displacement, localized wars can have global consequences, as terrorism and refugee crises illustrate, strengthening United Nations peacekeeping, mediation capacities, and regional cooperative security frameworks can reduce the risk of escalation, these measures must be consistently funded and supported, mitigating transnational dangers ensures that technological and territorial strategies are not undermined by global instability.
The fourth pillar is the promotion of human dignity, global poverty reduction, and improved governance, peace and stability are closely linked to economic opportunity, countries with higher income levels and stronger institutions are less prone to violent conflict, addressing extreme poverty requires a combination of targeted development assistance, direct cash transfers, and long-term investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, experience from the Green Revolution, South Korea, Taiwan, and other successful development programs shows that aid can be effective when aligned with sound fiscal policies and local governance, approximately $100 billion in coordinated aid could make a measurable impact in eliminating extreme poverty, technological solutions such as mobile cash transfers now enable rapid and equitable delivery even in countries with limited banking infrastructure, promoting human dignity also means strengthening governance, enhancing public institutions, and creating conditions in which citizens can participate meaningfully in decision-making, these initiatives reduce grievances that fuel conflict and terrorism, supporting development while encouraging trade, investment, and integration into global supply chains ensures that progress is sustainable and inclusive.
Building a safer world also requires understanding historical lessons, the first decades of the 21st century have been marked by rapid technological progress and geopolitical volatility, techno-optimism must be balanced with realism, just as early industrial advances in electricity, aviation, and automobiles were followed by destructive global wars, modern breakthroughs in AI and microbiology can produce enormous benefits but also unprecedented risks, great-power rivalries have returned, particularly between the United States, Russia, and China, territorial disputes, economic competition, and military buildups amplify these dangers, excessive focus on these rivalries alone risks ignoring existential threats that transcend borders, a forward-looking strategy must integrate conflict mitigation, arms control, technological regulation, climate action, and poverty reduction, only by addressing multiple threats simultaneously can long-term stability be achieved.
Even in a turbulent environment, progress is possible, the post-World War II era demonstrates that cooperative frameworks and institutions can prevent conflict, mechanisms like the Concert of Europe, nuclear arms control treaties, and the European Union expanded the zone of peace and reduced the likelihood of war among major powers, collaborative networks for policy and security have expanded beyond Europe and North America, although these efforts declined after 9/11, the global financial crisis, and the return of great-power competition, renewed leadership can reinvigorate international engagement, incremental steps, such as regional security arrangements, multilateral agreements on technology safety, and coordinated development assistance, can gradually build confidence and mutual understanding, small achievements reinforce norms of cooperation and reduce the risk of conflict escalation.
Effective implementation requires combining realism with ambition, not all disputes can be resolved immediately, not all technological risks can be eliminated, and global poverty cannot be ended overnight, the goal is not universal harmony, but rather the reduction of the most severe dangers, creating frameworks that prevent war, misuse of technology, and humanitarian crises, the United States and other key powers must pursue policies that encourage cooperation rather than confrontation, even countries with adversarial tendencies, such as Russia and China, can be engaged constructively on issues of common concern, framing international action around shared values, such as human dignity and prosperity, provides a politically neutral basis for collaboration, this approach minimizes ideological resistance and encourages broader participation from diverse states and societies.
In practice, the agenda involves multiple, interlocking efforts, resolving territorial disputes reduces the incentive to militarize new technologies, creating a predictable security environment allows nations to share best practices and establish verification regimes, cooperative regulation of AI and microbiology prevents unilateral misuse and catastrophic accidents, arms control for nuclear weapons, both existing and emerging arsenals, ensures strategic stability among three or more nuclear powers, addressing climate change, resource depletion, and pandemics prevents environmental and public health crises from undermining geopolitical stability, promoting human dignity through poverty alleviation and governance reform reduces conflict drivers and strengthens social resilience, together these measures create a foundation for long-term global peace, coordinated implementation across these pillars enhances the effectiveness of each individual effort, incremental progress in one domain reinforces stability and trust in others.
Political and societal factors determine the success of these efforts, domestic populism, economic anxiety, and nationalism can make long-term strategies difficult to sell to voters, however, stabilizing relations with major powers, reducing the risks of catastrophic war, and managing transnational threats are likely to resonate with citizens concerned about safety, economic opportunity, and environmental sustainability, transparent communication and tangible benefits help build public support, development assistance tied to measurable outcomes encourages confidence in international programs, integrating strategic objectives with domestic priorities ensures that global cooperation is politically feasible, national leaders must communicate the practical value of engagement, emphasizing that actions such as stabilizing Ukraine, regulating AI, or supporting global health also safeguard domestic security and economic interests.
Ultimately, pursuing a safer world is a realistic, morally grounded, and strategically necessary objective, the aim is to reduce the likelihood of conflict, prevent technological misuse, mitigate environmental and health risks, and expand human dignity, the framework requires patience, persistence, and willingness to negotiate, no single country can achieve these goals alone, multilateral engagement, collaboration among states, international institutions, civil society, and the private sector is essential, a comprehensive approach addresses immediate risks while laying the foundation for long-term cooperation, the dangers of inaction are too great to delay, visionary thinking must be paired with practical implementation, by adopting this integrated agenda, the global community can gradually shift toward a more stable, secure, and prosperous future.
The time for action is now, the United States, alongside partners in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Global South, must revitalize strategic thinking and cooperative engagement, long-term risks must be considered alongside short-term political concerns, addressing territorial disputes, technological threats, climate change, pandemics, and global poverty simultaneously maximizes security and well-being, this agenda is ambitious but achievable, incremental steps build momentum, international collaboration can transform competition into cooperation, a safer world is possible, and it requires immediate, coordinated effort across multiple domains to protect humanity and advance global stability.
