Dr Shabana Safdar Khan
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has recently issued a dire warning about dangerously low water levels in Pakistan’s two key reservoirs—Tarbela and Mangla dams—indicating that the country’s agricultural sector is facing a major crisis. With water levels approaching their dead levels in the coming days, this situation could trigger severe consequences for food security, especially the wheat crop, which is highly dependent on irrigation at this stage of its growth cycle.
Pakistan’s wheat crop, a vital component of its agricultural output, is at significant risk due to the impending water scarcity. As farmers prepare for the final irrigation before harvesting, the decreasing water levels in the dams threaten to disrupt the essential irrigation process, potentially leading to crop failures. This is a scenario that could exacerbate food insecurity and further destabilize regions that rely heavily on wheat production for both local consumption and economic stability.
The provinces of Punjab and Sindh are particularly vulnerable to the water shortages highlighted by IRSA. The authority has warned of water shortfalls ranging from 30% to 35% in these provinces during the final phase of the current Rabi season. This looming crisis has placed farmers in both regions in a precarious position as they prepare for the wheat harvest, which typically takes place in late April and early May.
Data from IRSA reveals that the Tarbela Dam, which serves as a critical source of irrigation water, now has only 73,000 acre-feet of water left, with its water level at 1,409 feet—just nine feet above the dead level of 1,400 feet. Meanwhile, the Mangla Dam’s live storage stands at 235,000 acre-feet, with its water level recorded at 1,088 feet, only 28 feet above its dead level of 1,060 feet. These levels are deeply concerning, as they threaten the viability of agricultural operations in the country. Additionally, back in October, IRSA had already predicted that the dams would reach their dead levels towards the end of the winter crop cycle, and the situation has turned out to be just as bleak as forecasted.
These warnings regarding water shortages have now become an almost predictable feature at the start of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons. However, the reoccurrence of such shortages raises serious concerns about the long-term sustainability of Pakistan’s agricultural sector and water security. It also underscores the urgent need for comprehensive solutions to address the challenges posed by the country’s dwindling water resources.
The ongoing water crisis in Pakistan is the result of a combination of factors. Declining and erratic rainfall patterns over the past few years have exacerbated the situation, reducing the country’s ability to replenish its water reserves. Climate change has played a significant role in altering precipitation patterns, with rainfall becoming more unpredictable and intense. Additionally, the accelerated melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalayas has temporarily provided surplus water, but this is far from a long-term solution, as the glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has reported that the country’s snow cover reduced by 23.3% between November 2023 and April 2024, with an annual glacial melt rate of 3%. Over the past five years, 16% of Pakistan’s glacial mass has been lost, a worrying trend that spells future water shortages.
In addition to climate factors, inefficient water management practices, outdated irrigation systems, and a lack of adequate water storage and distribution infrastructure have further aggravated the crisis. Pakistan’s irrigation system is heavily reliant on flood irrigation, which is not only wasteful but also inefficient, contributing to the depletion of the country’s water resources. Furthermore, the rapid population growth and the increasing demand for water are placing additional pressure on already limited resources.
The current water shortage poses a direct threat to Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which is already under strain. The lack of sufficient irrigation water, particularly in the lead-up to the wheat harvest, could lead to crop failures in key agricultural provinces. Wheat is one of the country’s staple crops and is vital for both domestic consumption and export. If farmers cannot access enough water to irrigate their crops, the resulting yield losses would have far-reaching consequences for food security, particularly in rural areas that rely on wheat as a primary source of sustenance.
Moreover, crop failures would further destabilize Pakistan’s economy, which depends heavily on agricultural output. Reduced wheat production could lead to higher food prices, increasing the burden on already struggling households. This situation could also create political instability, as food shortages and rising costs could fuel unrest among the population.
The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly evident in Pakistan’s water resources, and the outlook is grim. As global temperatures rise, the country’s glaciers are melting at an accelerated pace, which could have severe consequences for its long-term freshwater availability. While the melting of glaciers has provided some temporary water surpluses, the long-term loss of glacial mass is expected to reduce the volume of water available for irrigation and other essential needs.
The changing climate is also expected to disrupt the natural water cycles that have historically sustained Pakistan’s river systems. The unpredictable rainfall patterns associated with climate change make it harder to forecast water availability, further complicating efforts to manage the country’s water resources effectively. As a result, the challenges associated with water resource management are becoming more complex and harder to address.
To address the growing water crisis, both the federal and provincial governments must work together to develop a coordinated strategy focused on sustainable water management. This strategy should prioritize the modernization of irrigation systems and the adoption of more efficient farming techniques. Drip irrigation, for example, is a highly efficient alternative to flood irrigation that could help conserve water and increase crop yields.
Moreover, investments in water conservation technologies, such as wastewater treatment, rainwater harvesting, and desalination, must become a priority. These technologies can help reduce the country’s reliance on freshwater sources and improve water availability in areas that are experiencing acute shortages.
Additionally, the government must focus on improving water storage capacity by constructing new reservoirs and expanding existing ones. This would help mitigate the impacts of irregular rainfall patterns and provide a more reliable source of water for agriculture during periods of drought.
Finally, equitable water distribution is crucial to ensuring that all provinces have access to the resources they need. IRSA and other relevant authorities must ensure that water allocation among provinces is fair and does not disadvantage any one region. Sindh, for example, is a lower riparian province and is particularly vulnerable to water shortages. Ensuring that the interests of all provinces are protected will help prevent tensions and foster cooperation in the management of Pakistan’s water resources.
In conclusion, Pakistan is facing a rapidly escalating water crisis that threatens not only its agricultural sector but also its long-term economic stability and food security. To mitigate the impact of this crisis, the country must adopt comprehensive, forward-thinking policies that prioritize sustainable water management, modern irrigation practices, and equitable distribution of resources. Only through such efforts can Pakistan hope to navigate the challenges posed by water scarcity and climate change, ensuring a secure and prosperous future for its citizens.
