Tahir Masood Chheena, Mubashir Nadeem, Abdul Latif Tahir, Hafeez Ahmed Kha, Naveed Baloch, Yasir Chandia

Pakistan is a Federal Republic according to Article 1 of the Constitution of Pakistan. Therefore, the government will be formed by the people’s chosen representatives. Then, Pakistan has a parliamentary form of governance. The parliament of Pakistan is bicameral. It consists of the National Assembly, Senate and the president of Pakistan. Article 52 of the Constitution of Pakistan provides five years as the term of the national assembly. According to Article 224, the Election Commission of Pakistan is responsible for conducting free and transparent elections. The Election Commission of Pakistan has announced the election for both national and provincial assemblies on 8 January 2024.

As elections are around the corner, therefore, it is essential to measure the political trends. As an organization, Republic Policy often conducts different types of polls, surveys and voting to know and measure political trends. Accordingly, Republic Policy has conducted a constituency-based survey of National Assembly seats in Pakistan. It is critical to know that it is a constituency politics in Pakistan. Therefore, the primary Survey can only determine who wins how many constituencies. The other derivative measurements are presidential, like a popular leader or party, which might not be central to constituency politics.

A constituency-based election survey is a type of Survey that collects data on the opinions and preferences of voters in a specific electoral district or constituency. Such surveys are conducted to comprehend the political behaviour and attitudes of the electorate, as well as to predict the outcome of an election based on various factors.

Election-based surveys are conducted for various reasons, such as to measure the level of support and satisfaction for different political parties, candidates, and policies among the voters and to identify the key issues and concerns that influence the voting decisions of the voters.

Furthermore, they are conducted to assess the impact of demographic, social, and economic factors on the voters’ voting behaviour alongside evaluating the effectiveness of campaign strategies and communication methods used by the political actors. Then, providing feedback and guidance for the political actors to improve their performance and appeal to the voters is also critical. Surveys are meant to collect data so that policy derivatives may be developed. A survey is always dependent upon the questionnaire and the methodology of the Survey. A survey can only be evaluated through its methodology.

Election-based surveys can be conducted using different methods, such as:

Face-to-face interviews: This method involves interviewing a representative sample of voters in person, using a structured or semi-structured questionnaire. This method can provide rich and detailed data, but it can also be costly and time-consuming.

Telephone interviews: This method involves calling a random or selected sample of voters and asking them questions over the phone. This method can be faster and cheaper than face-to-face interviews, but it can also suffer from low response rates and potential biases.

Online surveys: This method involves sending an electronic questionnaire to a panel or a list of voters who have agreed to participate in online surveys. This method can be convenient and flexible, but it can also have issues with sampling quality and validity.

Mail surveys: This method involves mailing a paper questionnaire to a sample of voters and asking them to return it by post. This method can be simple and inexpensive, but it can also have low response rates and delays in data collection.

Election-based surveys can provide valuable insights into the political landscape and dynamics of a constituency, as well as help the political actors tailor their messages and actions to the needs and preferences of the voters. However, election-based surveys also have some limitations, such as:

Sampling errors: This refers to the possibility that the sample of voters surveyed may not accurately represent the population of voters in the constituency. This can affect the reliability and generalizability of the survey results.

Measurement errors: This refers to the possibility that the questions asked in the Survey may not capture the true opinions and preferences of the voters. This can affect the validity and accuracy of the survey results.

Response errors: This refers to the possibility that the respondents may not answer the survey questions honestly or consistently. This can affect the quality and credibility of the survey results.

Therefore, election-based surveys should be designed and conducted carefully, using appropriate methods and techniques, to ensure that they produce reliable and valid data that can inform and improve the political process. Accordingly, Republic Policy has conducted a constituency-based survey of Pakistan’s national assembly constituencies. Earlier, Republic Policy introduced constituency-based surveys in Pakistan. Therefore, primary data has been collected constituency-wise. Furthermore, constituencies are divided among union councils. The basic unit of the Survey is the union council. The duration of the Survey is from 1 October 2023 to 15 December 2023. The union councils are the political measurement of the local government departments, whereas the Election Commission of Pakistan divides the constituencies among populations. A delimitation of 2022 is used to collect data for the Survey. 

Methodology of the Survey:

It is very important to understand the methodology of the Survey. The first part is that it is a constituency-based survey. The constituencies from NA-01 to NA-266 are distributed for data collection, with the Union Council as the basic unit in Punjab and KPK. Furthermore, the Survey methodology in Sindh and Baluchistan is different. That will be shared when surveys of Sindh and Baluchistan will be published.

The questionnaire is one:

Which political party will you vote for in the coming general elections?

The data in line with the questionnaire is further taken from two sources. 

1. Data is collected from the common voters from each UC comprising of an NA constituency.
2. Data is collected from different representative communities in the NA constituency.

Thus, data is compiled accordingly. Then, the primary data is measured with five feedbacks to measure the political trend of the constituency.

The five pieces of feedback are the following:

1. Who is the most popular political leader?
2. Who is the most popular political party?
3. Who is the most favourite candidate of the constituency?
4. What is the first preference to vote?
5. Who is the second-most favourite leader, party or candidate to vote?

There are two types of vote in Pakistan. First is popular vote and the second is traditional vote. The popular vote is a vote of political wave and remains uninfluenced by the considerations of baradari, Dhara, clans, castes and other affiliations. It is a vote of free will and prefers political parties, good governance, performance, and ideology. Whereas, the traditional vote is influenced by Baradari, Dhara, clans and electable. Therefore, the questionnaire, To which political party, will you vote in the coming general elections is directly dependent upon the popular vote.

Republic Policy’s Survey Methodology: A Deeper Dive

Understanding public opinion and predicting political trends is crucial in a vibrant democracy like Pakistan. Republic Policy’s approach to this challenge focuses on constituency-level surveys, a departure from the usual national polls. This shift requires a closer look at our methodology to assess its strengths and limitations.

The Logic of Constituencies:

Pakistan’s parliamentary system hinges on winning seats in the National Assembly (NA), making constituencies the true battlegrounds. RP’s focus on individual constituencies instead of national popularity polls acknowledges this reality. Their central question – “Which political party will win how many seats among the 266 NA seats?” – aligns directly with the core dynamics of Pakistani politics.

Beyond “Who is Most Popular?”:

Presidential-style questions about the overall leader or party popularity, while relevant, are secondary in this context. Instead, RP delves deeper by analyzing how these national preferences translate into individual constituency preferences. This nuance is crucial, as local factors like clan affiliations and candidate personalities can sway voting patterns significantly.

Dissecting Constituencies:

Recognizing the inherent diversity within constituencies, RP utilizes Union Councils (UCs) as the basic unit for data collection. Each UC, with its unique mix of communities and political leanings, provides a more granular picture than a cumulative-level survey. This approach acknowledges that Pakistan’s or Punjab’s National Assembly constituencies comprising 20-40 UC constituencies, despite belonging to the same administrative unit, can harbor vastly different political landscapes.

Unpacking Voting Patterns:

Beyond party preference, RP’s Survey delves into the underlying reasons why people vote. Analyzing data through categories like age, profession, gender, and traditional affiliations (biradari/dhara) sheds light on the complex factors influencing voting decisions. This multi-faceted approach goes beyond the simplistic “popular vote” narrative and reveals the intricate tapestry of societal dynamics shaping political outcomes.

Simplicity and Refinement:

The Survey itself poses a single, straightforward question: “Which political party will you vote for?”. This clarity ensures ease of understanding and reduces potential confusion for respondents. However, further exploration into specific candidates, campaign promises, and local issues could provide even richer insights. It will be provided to the audiences when the candidates of the constituencies are declared by the political parties. 

Transparency and Analysis:

While RP shares some conclusions drawn from their data, the details of their sampling methodology and data analysis remain useful for the people, political workers and parties. The political trends of constituencies covering all the Union councils, age groups, professions, and socio-political affiliations provide the surveys’ transparency, representativeness, and accuracy. Sharing information with the audiences about sample size, feedback, response rates, and statistical techniques provides credibility to the findings.

Additional Considerations:

The role of social media, particularly TikTok’s growing influence in rural areas, warrants further investigation in future surveys. Additionally, a more comprehensive analysis of the relative weight of factors like party, candidate, campaign, and polling day management in determining electoral outcomes would offer a more holistic understanding of Pakistani politics. The Republic Policy survey, extended for more than two months, has tried to measure the political affiliations of the different parts of the country to provide feedback to the political parties to make political decisions. 

Conclusion:

Republic Policy’s constituency-based survey approach offers a valuable lens through which to understand political trends in Pakistan. Then we also believe that we have our own limitations as an organization. The funds, the untrained human capital, the passive response from the people, and many other factors limit our Survey. More than that, the surveys are always limited. They only provide data to make decisions. The election surveys are also a method to measure political trends and provide data to make decisions. Accordingly, the polling day result is the final outcome of the elections, and political parties must work until elections are polled.

However, addressing the identified weaknesses and incorporating additional considerations can strengthen the methodology and provide a more accurate and insightful picture of the electoral landscape. By adopting a transparent and comprehensive approach, RP is trying to contribute significantly to informed public discourse and democratic processes in Pakistan.

Lastly, data collection and analysis are critical for a research organization that works for governance, civil services, human rights, federalism, devolution and reforms. RP, with other partners, is striving for data collection in Pakistan to research the organization’s objectives. Pl visit republicpolicy.com and the organization page for details.

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