In a recent interview, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed optimism about the future of India’s relationship with China, a longstanding rival. Modi noted that normalcy had returned to the disputed India-China border and advocated for strengthening bilateral ties between the two nations.
This statement is significant, as tensions have been high since the violent border clash in Ladakh in 2020, which resulted in significant casualties—the deadliest border conflict between the two nations since the 1962 war. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning acknowledged Modi’s remarks, emphasizing that the two countries should become partners contributing to each other’s success.
While Modi’s call for closer cooperation is seen as a positive step, the relationship remains complicated. India and China share deep historical and geopolitical issues that still need to be addressed for a full rapprochement. However, there have been notable areas of cooperation between the two countries in recent years.
Key Areas of Cooperation Between India and China
Despite the Ladakh clash, the economic relationship between India and China has remained strong. China has consistently been India’s top trade partner, and both countries cooperate on various multilateral platforms, including BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. They also share common interests, such as opposing US-led moral crusades, combating Islamist terrorism, and promoting non-Western economic models.
Even in the aftermath of the Ladakh clash, both countries maintained military dialogues, leading to a deal in October to resume border patrols. Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping also met at a BRICS summit in Russia, pledging further cooperation. More recently, the two countries agreed to resume direct flights in January, signaling a potential thaw in relations.
Challenges in India-China Relations
Despite these positive steps, several issues continue to strain the relationship. India has strong security ties with the US, while China maintains close relationships with Pakistan, India’s primary regional rival. Additionally, China’s opposition to Indian policies in Kashmir and its efforts to block India’s membership in prestigious international groups, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the UN Security Council, continue to hinder diplomatic progress.
China’s military presence in the Indian Ocean region, including its only overseas military base, has also raised concerns in New Delhi. Furthermore, the Belt and Road Initiative, which passes through territories claimed by India, is another point of contention.
India’s increasing ties with Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province, as well as its support for the Dalai Lama, exacerbate tensions. Additionally, India’s involvement in defense deals with Southeast Asian nations, aimed at deterring Chinese actions in the South China Sea, is another point of friction.
Key Factors Influencing the Future of India-China Relations
Several factors will play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of India-China relations in the coming months and years. One of the most significant is the ongoing border dispute, with over 50,000 square miles of territory remaining contested. The Ladakh clash severely damaged trust between the two nations, but recent agreements on border patrols have helped rebuild some of that trust. Confidence-building measures and further diplomatic engagements between leaders could further stabilize the relationship.
The potential for high-level meetings between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi, scheduled for upcoming summits like BRICS, G20, and SCO, could provide additional opportunities for collaboration. Additionally, increased Chinese investment in India’s key sectors, such as manufacturing and renewable energy, could provide economic benefits and foster stronger commercial ties.
Regional and Global Dynamics
The broader regional and global context will also influence the India-China relationship. Several of India’s neighbors, including Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, have seen a shift toward more pro-China leadership in recent years. However, these countries have generally sought to balance their relations with both China and India, rather than aligning exclusively with one.
If China were to reduce its partnership with Russia—India’s strategic ally—following the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, this could ease tensions between India and China. Moreover, if the US under President Trump eases its stance on China, India may seek to strengthen its ties with Beijing to counterbalance any potential shifts in Washington’s approach.
Despite their competitive nature as Asia’s two largest nations, recent positive developments suggest that India and China might be on a path toward more stable relations. While challenges remain, especially regarding border disputes and security concerns, the potential for further cooperation on economic and diplomatic fronts could lead to a more stable and pragmatic relationship in the years ahead. Modi’s hopeful language, coupled with these recent diplomatic efforts, suggests that the future of India-China ties may hold more promise than many initially expected.
