Arshad Mahmood Awan
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is a landmark water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank in 1960. It governs the distribution of water from the Indus River and its tributaries, dividing them into two main groups: the Eastern Rivers (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej), allocated to India, and the Western Rivers (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum), primarily allocated to Pakistan. The treaty allows India limited use of the Western Rivers for irrigation and unrestricted non-consumptive uses like hydropower generation. A key feature of the IWT is the establishment of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), a bilateral body tasked with resolving disputes and ensuring compliance. Remarkably, the treaty has endured despite multiple wars between the two nations, underscoring its resilience—until recent developments.
The historical context of the IWT traces back to the partition of British India in 1947, which created immediate water disputes. The headworks of major rivers fell under Indian control, while the downstream regions were in Pakistan, leading to tensions over water access. The Inter-Dominion Accord of 1948 provided a temporary solution but failed to address long-term water-sharing needs. By the 1950s, the World Bank stepped in to mediate, proposing a division of the rivers rather than shared usage. Pakistan, as the lower riparian state, feared India’s upstream control could lead to water scarcity or deliberate flooding. Despite initial resistance, both nations eventually agreed to the treaty in 1960, with international funding helping Pakistan transition to reliance on the Western Rivers.
Over the decades, the IWT has faced numerous challenges and allegations of violations. Pakistan has consistently accused India of constructing dams—such as the Baglihar, Kishanganga, and Ratle projects—that allegedly reduce water flow downstream. These concerns have been particularly pronounced during periods of heightened tensions, such as after the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack, when India threatened to divert water from rivers allocated to Pakistan. India, however, maintains that its hydropower projects comply with the treaty’s provisions. Frustrations on India’s side have grown due to Pakistan’s frequent objections to projects and its exploitation of treaty loopholes, such as the Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) project, which diverted saline water into India’s Kutch region, violating the treaty’s terms.
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Recent geopolitical developments have brought the IWT under unprecedented strain. Following the 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) announced the suspension of the treaty, citing national security concerns. This decision marks a significant escalation, as the treaty had previously survived multiple conflicts between the two nations. The suspension has far-reaching implications: Pakistan, which relies heavily on the Indus waters for agriculture, could face severe water scarcity. India, on the other hand, may accelerate dam construction on the Western Rivers, further reducing downstream flow. The move also risks exacerbating diplomatic tensions, potentially leading to a broader conflict over water resources.
The future of the IWT remains uncertain. India has long demanded revisions to the treaty, arguing that it unfairly restricts Jammu and Kashmir’s water rights. Pakistan, fearing water insecurity, insists on strict adherence to the existing terms. The World Bank’s role as a mediator may prove crucial in preventing an all-out conflict, but if arbitration fails, the dispute could escalate to international forums like the United Nations or the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The suspension of the treaty signals a shift in regional water politics, where hydropower and national security are increasingly prioritized over cooperation.
In conclusion, the Indus Water Treaty was once celebrated as a rare success in Indo-Pak diplomacy. However, mounting geopolitical tensions, terrorism, and the growing impacts of climate change have severely tested its viability. India’s 2025 decision to suspend the treaty reflects a new era of water politics in South Asia, where shared resources are becoming a focal point of conflict. If both nations fail to renegotiate or de-escalate, the region could face unprecedented water-related instability, with far-reaching consequences for millions of people dependent on the Indus River system. The suspension of the IWT is not just a bilateral issue but a potential flashpoint for broader regional insecurity.
