By: Imran Munir

Why do we need an energy transition.

The energy transition requires moving from a fossil fuel-based economy to one based on renewable energy sources with net-zero carbon emissions. It is a topic that is talked about frequently in reference to global energy use and the future of the economy. There is a need for an energy transition and we need to change the way we consume energy. To supply our energy across the world, we need different energy carriers. These could be coal, oil, natural gas or a renewable energy source. In the EU, the majority of energy consumption is supplied by fossil fuels. Coal, oil and natural gas make up 71% of energy mix.

Why do we consider a large amount of fossil fuel consumption such a negative thing?

The energy we consume has an impact on the environment. There is a limited amount of these fuels – so at some point we will have depleted these fuels until there is nothing left. Before this happens, we need to find other ways to fuel our energy system. There are several renewable sources available on Earth, such as wind, hydro, solar, geothermal, wave and tidal energy. These are available in abundance, especially solar power. A huge amount of energy available annually for each energy source. To avoid running out of energy sources, we must transition from a reliance on the limited supply of fossil fuels to the renewable supply of other sources. In addition to this, the combustion of fossil fuels also causes pollution of the atmosphere. When we burn fossil fuels, we emit pollutants like carbon dioxide and traces of other elements such as nitrous oxides and other particulate matter. When these enter into the atmosphere, they have an impact on life on Earth. In order to reduce the pollution, we need to reduce the

combustion of fossil fuels. Of all these pollutants, carbon dioxide is the most well- known. Carbon dioxide contributes to the greenhouse effect.

In the past, the greenhouse effect has helped to keep our planet at a stable and warm temperature by stopping heat from escaping the Earth. However, because of the additional carbon dioxide emitted from combustion of fossil fuels, more heat is trapped in the atmosphere. This leads to a temperature rise on the earth. This temperature rise causes changes in our current climate and so is called climate change. The ambition is to limit climate change as this is both detrimental to life and to the economy. We are already seeing the start of its effects, including more extreme weather events, droughts, flooding and rising sea levels.

Firstly, we want to reduce the total greenhouse gas emissions by 55%. This not only comprises carbon dioxide, but also methane and other emissions of fossil fuel users. We also want to increase the share of renewable energy in energy production to 32% by 2030. The long-term ambition is to become climate neutral by 2050. That means that the we want to have developed into an economy which – on an annual basis – does not emit more carbon emissions than it takes from the atmosphere. This will be implemented by the so-called Green Deal.

If today, there is large scale combustion of fuels. Typically, most of the electricity production is based on fossil fuels and the power flows from the large- scale production centers to the areas of electricity demand.

The energy transition aims to transform the electricity system. Electricity generation will be based predominantly on renewable energy sources like solar energy. As a result, generation no longer takes place in large industrial plants. It will be dispersed in the system at the places of consumption. The solar panels are then on the roof of the houses who consume electricity. The change is from a system based on large scale, long distance transported electricity into a system with local generation and storage nearby consumption.

That is the objective of the energy transition. Although we often think about the energy transition as the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, otherwise known as ‘decarbonization. A better way to get people thinking about what energy transition entails is using 3DER acronym: decarbonization, decentralization, digitization, electrification and resilience.

Decarbonization

Decarbonization is what we traditionally think of in reference to the energy transition. This involves eliminating carbon-based fuels for energy usage. This could be for electricity generation, transport or any other sector. If we are to transition our economy, we need to find other energy sources to rely upon.

Decentralization

Decentralization refers to changing our energy system so we are no longer reliant on a few, large generation plants. As talked about in the video, this means building energy generation as many, smaller power plants or generation attached to consumer households. This is important for renewable generation to ensure security of supply and increase resilience.

Digitalization

As the energy market undergoes complex changes, it is important to implement effective management and monitoring. This can be done by integrating digital technology into all aspects of the energy system, including generation, transmission and demand side technology. In reality, the core infrastructure of our energy system is still similar to that of 60 years ago and will require many upgrades to fully digitalize.

Electrification

If we want to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, we need something to replace this as an energy source. One way to do this is through electrification. This involves electrifying many sectors such as transport and industry.

Resilience

All of these changes within the energy system will significantly impact its resilience. Here, resilience means the ability to adapt in the face of possible threats and the energy transition and climate change could bring many new threats to our system. Additional renewable generation will be more dependent on uncontrollable factors like the weather. Increased digitization will bring a greater need for cyber security. Within the energy transition, it is important to integrate agility and flexibility to ensure our energy system can withstand the risks it will face.

The Future Power

Most of the energy consumption in our society today relies on fossil fuels. We need it to drive our cars. To heat and light up our homes. After the energy transition we can no longer rely on fossil fuels for energy it’s expected that in the energy transition the role of electricity will increase, especially with respect to heating and mobility. For heat, electric heat pumps are being developed. And for mobility, we are seeing electric vehicles being gradually implemented in many European countries. With electricity playing such a key role in the energy transition, it is important to focus on how this electricity will be generated.

Renewable energies like solar and wind power will contribute to a greater share of electricity in the future. Unfortunately, there are some specific challenges we must overcome to implement this.

One of the challenges relates to the time of today. Right now, we use electricity at the moment of our choice – whereas most renewable electricity is being generated depending on weather conditions, such as solar insulation, wind availability, etc.

How do we solve this mismatch between consumption and generation?

The best method we have currently is through energy storage.

The second challenge relates to the geographical availability. Most renewable electricity can only be generated at a specific location. Somewhere sunny for solar power for instance. But we consume it at our home or in offices all over Europe. We need electricity transport to move this electricity from generation to consumption.

These four sources of renewable generation will be typical after the energy transition: hydro power, wind power, solar power, and biomass. Hydro power is a so-called base load energy source. A river runs all the time – so all the time, electricity can be generated. Wind power, however, depends on the availability of wind. When there is no wind, there is no wind power.

This makes the electricity output of a wind park a variable energy source. The same holds for solar power. This depends on the availability of insulation. In most places the sun only shines during the day. And there are more sunny days in the summer than in the winter. So, the output of solar panels will vary depending on these weather conditions.

Finally, we have biomass. Biomass more or less behaves like coal when it is being burned in a thermal generator. So, this type of power generation is typically dispatchable. It is possible to ramp up and to ramp down to follow demand. However, the thermal combustion process is quite sensitive, and usually it is much easier to produce electricity at a constant output power. Many of these renewable energy sources are also dependent on geographical location. For hydro power, you need a river and a height difference to generate

power. This is ideal for countries in mountainous regions but less so for flat countries like the Netherlands. Obviously, for wind power, you need wind. And for solar power, the output of solar panels depends on the amount of insulation. In Europe, the southern countries will yield a higher output power from their solar panels than in the north. Finally, for biomass, we need land availability to grow the biomass. Ideally, one would use local resources, for instance waste streams from crop agriculture. Although biomass can be transported, it makes much more sense to locate the electricity generator where there is sufficient biomass to burn.

One of the reasons is that for wind and solar power, there are no costs associated with generating electricity. There are costs associated with the investment and operation and maintenance. But as there are no fuels needed, there are no real variable costs. They generate electricity, only when there is sun or wind. One other challenge is the forecasting possibility. How easy is it to forecast when the sun will shine and what the output of solar panels will be? Because we cannot control or forecast the electricity generation until the moment it is produced, we need other solutions to link generation with demand, for example energy storage in batteries.

The energy transition will see a transformation from the present electricity system, in which the generators are operated to follow demand, to a new electricity system – where generators will produce autonomously. Therefore, we need other options like storage and flexible demand to match instantaneous generation and electricity consumption.

Decarbonization

One of the main goals of the energy transition is to decarbonize the economy. This implies that we reduce our reliance on carbon-based fossil fuels.

But when fossil fuels provide so much of the world’s energy, how can this be achieved? What steps must be taken to decarbonize the economy?

Why do we need a policy to incentivize the reduction of CO2 emission?

Firstly, current policies to support renewable energy sources are not enough to reduce emissions to stay in line with the Paris Agreement. In this agreement it has been decided that our goal is to keep the global temperature increase below 2 degrees centigrade. To meet this goal, we must also incentivize the reduction of CO2 emissions by other means.

Secondly, most renewable energy sources currently only provide electricity. There are many other sectors in which fossil fuels are the main energy source – such as industry or transport. So, we also need to reduce the usage of fossil fuels in those areas. There are many options for reducing CO2 emissions. We have already seen how renewable energy sources provide carbon free electricity. But so does nuclear power, as it uses uranium as a fuel. There are also carbon neutral fuels that can be used for transport and carbon capture and storage – although these technologies are still under development.

Renewable Energy

Energy available in natural environments that can be replenished repeatedly and is abundantly available is called renewable energy. On the other hand energy obtained from burning of fossil fuels like oil and gas which can be consumed and, according to estimates the reserves of which might last around 190 years is non-renewable energy. Depending upon the location and the session, renewable energy is available in various forms like solar energy, wind energy (24.2 % of UK electricity), hydropower, geo thermal energy (heat within the planet), biomass (organic waste burn), tidal energy (ocean energy) and hydrogen (most abundant element and zero carbon fuel).

Advantages

The renewable energy sources are abundant and will run out in approximately 4.5 to 5.5 billion years.

These resources are reliable because political instability and market claims/turmoil cannot impact the use of these sources.

Renewable energy is environmentally friendly with minimum carbon and GHGs emissions.

Can improve public health and ameliorate the environment.

Can create lots of jobs.

These require less maintenance cost.

Renewable energy can reduce turmoil in energy price.

Renewable energy can increase countries’ economic independence and decrease the risk of an energy crisis.

Renewable energy increases the income of land owners and formers.

Installing renewable energy equipment can increase the value of property significantly. For example, the installation of solar panels on rooftops increases the cost and value of the house.

Renewable energy brings environmental, social and economic benefits.

DECARBONIZATION IN ENERGY TRANSITION AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYABILITY IN PAKISTAN

The Government of Pakistan (GOP) has adopted ambitious national renewable energy (RE) targets under the RE Policy 2019. The policy sets out a growth trajectory for grid connected, non-hydro renewables, mandating at least 20 percent renewables in the country’s installed power generation capacity by 2025 and 30 percent by 2030. The government has simultaneously approved a comprehensive power generation capacity expansion plan, the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2021–2030 (IGCEP 2021–2030).

Since large hydropower makes up the bulk of capacity additions in the IGCEP, new wind, solar, and bagasse projects in the IGCEP account for approximately 11,700 MW compared to 16,300 MW of non-hydro RE needed to meet the national RE targets.

To capitalize on the employment creation potential of the RE targets and the IGCEP, policy makers will have to anticipate changes in workforce trends and develop a preemptive plan to manage skill requirements and prevent workforce shortages. This will help inform skill development in RE by providing policy makers and other stakeholders, including the Higher Education Commission (HEC) and the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC), with indicative employment projections required for long-term planning.

Given the lack of RE employment data in Pakistan, the scope of employment forecasts includes direct formal jobs and indirect jobs only. Employment forecasts for direct jobs are estimated using the employment factor approach in a scenario framework and include jobs in manufacturing, project development, construction and installation (C&I) and operation and maintenance (O&M).

Indirect jobs (in businesses whose core activities provide primary inputs for RE projects and ancillary service providers) are estimated in aggregate using employment multipliers from the research literature. The technology focus

of the employment estimates includes grid-connected wind and solar generation and off-grid solar systems. Both grid-connected and off-grid solar installations with a capacity of less than 5 megawatts (MW) are included in the “distributed solar” category.

FACTS

The RE industry provided approximately 14,000 direct and over 11,000 indirect jobs in 2020 against an installed base of 1,995 MW of grid-connected wind and solar projects and an estimated 2,600 MW of off-grid solar PV installations.

1. In the lead-up to 2030, new investments in wind and solar are expected to produce a sharp rise in RE investments, increasing demand for RE workers at all skill levels. Following the IGCEP pathway, new investments in approximately 3,722 MW of grid-scale wind projects and 7,533 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects have the potential to provide over 105,000 direct jobs by 2030.
2. The more ambitious RE policy scenario has the potential to deliver more than 190,000 direct jobs in the RE industry and an additional 137,000 indirect jobs in associated sectors. Although most direct jobs would be temporary, lasting only through the project implementation period, the RE industry could provide more than 14,000 permanent jobs between 2021 and 2030.

While occupational roles in RE require some skilled workers (with a degree or diploma qualification), the renewables workforce mostly comprises semiskilled workers (with vocational training) and unskilled labor. Under all three scenarios considered in the study, aggregate demand for semiskilled and unskilled workers accounts for approximately 75 percent of all employment created between 2021 and 2030.

Starting in 2015, specialized curricula in RE were introduced all over the country through universities and technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions. However, Sindh and Balochistan, the two provinces with the best wind and solar resources lag in the supply of RE relevant degree and vocational courses. Currently, only 4 percent of the TVET institutes in Sindh and 9 percent in

Balochistan offer vocational RE training for semiskilled workers. Similarly, only five universities in Sindh and one in Balochistan offer degree courses relevant to RE.

In the current market, technical professional jobs (requiring an engineering degree or technical diploma) are the hardest to recruit against, followed by managerial jobs and trade jobs requiring medium to low vocational skills. A lack of practical experience (not qualification) is reported to be the leading cause of recruitment difficulties; therefore, more than 80 percent of RE companies provide some form of in-house training to employees in technical roles. Employment in RE is marked by a heavy reliance on part-time or temporary workers and low female participation in both technical and nontechnical professions.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT

Consistent growth in RE capacity is one of the most important considerations in the planning and provision of RE-related skills. Maintaining continuity and stability in RE policy is therefore critical for effective skills development and supporting steady employment growth in the renewables sector. Similarly, although the higher education and TVET delivery system extends across Pakistan, systemic weaknesses in the skill delivery system have the potential to undermine RE workforce development in the medium and long term. This report proposes several strategic interventions that the three main stakeholder groups—the government, education and training institutions, and RE companies—can implement to ensure an adequate supply of RE workers over the next decade.

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