President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States is having “good talks” with Iran and sees a chance of reaching a deal to end their conflict, though he warned that US strikes would resume if negotiations fail to produce results.
Despite Trump’s optimism, Tehran appeared to quickly test the pause in American military operations, with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq all reporting drone attacks on Monday. Washington had abruptly suspended its two-week air campaign against Iran on Saturday, the latest reversal in a conflict now five months old.
“We’re having good talks,” Trump said. “I think there’s a good chance that something could happen, and if it does, good; if it doesn’t, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.” Speaking later at a campaign rally in Michigan, he struck a more combative tone on Iran: “You can’t bribe them. You’ve got to beat them, and we’ll beat the hell out of them. But we’ll see how it turns out. Right now, there are very friendly negotiations going on.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Monday that messages were still passing between the two sides through mediators and that Iran had not abandoned diplomacy, but he dismissed reports that Tehran had requested negotiations as fabricated. “This is not in our DNA,” he said. A senior Iranian official had told Reuters on Sunday that Iran would hold off on its own attacks so long as Trump’s self-imposed ceasefire held.
Iran’s central military command, however, accused the US on Monday of threatening vessels and oil tankers in its territorial waters and of attempting to impose an illegal maritime blockade, calling it an escalation of the regional conflict. Saudi Arabia said it had shot down drones aimed at petroleum targets, including in Riyadh, which it said were launched from Iraq by Iran-backed armed groups, and it reserved the right to respond. Separately, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen said they had struck the East-West Pipeline carrying oil to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu in retaliation for Saudi drone strikes. Tehran maintained that it remains in control of the contested Strait of Hormuz, the vital global energy corridor Trump has demanded be kept open to free passage.
Oil Prices Tumble as War Weighs on Trump
Public opposition to the war has increasingly weighed on Trump and his Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections, in which they must defend narrow congressional majorities. A weekend Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump’s approval ticking up to 37%, three points higher than last month when it had matched the lowest of his presidency. Even so, only one in three Americans support the Iran war, the lowest such reading since the conflict began, with most respondents saying Trump has failed to clearly explain his objectives.
The halt to the US campaign, after 13 consecutive nights of intensifying bombing, combined with Trump’s talk of negotiations, sent oil prices sharply lower. US crude fell 8.21% to $81.98 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped 9.31% to $87.77 a barrel.
According to a US official and multiple American media reports, Trump’s decision to pause the strikes reflected advice from military leadership that the bombing campaign had reached the limits of what it could realistically achieve. The official said commanders had told the president they were running low on targets and that Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine had raised concerns over depleted air munitions stockpiles. Trump rejected suggestions of a munitions shortage, saying the military was rapidly rebuilding inventories drawn down by shipments to Ukraine and adding that he would like access to “the more sophisticated stuff.”
Six Ships Reportedly Turned Back
Iranian state media cited an unnamed informed source saying Iran had turned back six “offending ships” on Monday after they attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission. Trump had launched the renewed bombing campaign to punish Iran after it fired on vessels using a route Washington had promoted, one directing ships to sail close to the Omani coast. Iran maintains that vessels may only pass through a Hormuz channel running nearer its own coastline, one it controls and intends to subject to transit fees.
The two weeks of renewed US bombing killed dozens in Iran and destroyed bridges, tunnels, and military sites across the country’s south. Four American service members were killed in retaliatory strikes on US bases in neighboring states, while Iran also struck civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries, describing the attacks as retaliation for the US bombing campaign. It remains unclear what leverage Washington can bring to bear to break Iran’s hold on the strait.
The US and Iran reached a framework agreement in June for talks intended to conclude by the end of August on major outstanding issues, including Iran’s nuclear program. But the two sides remain divided over the meaning of the memorandum’s language on the strait, with Washington insisting it guarantees free passage for vessels, while Iran maintains it grants Tehran supervisory authority over transit.
