Israel and Hamas are at odds over a proposal for “sustainable calm” in the Gaza Strip. The proposal, supported by Hamas, calls for a temporary cessation of military operations between the two sides, followed by a permanent cessation of military and hostile operations for sustainable calm. However, Israel’s government wants the right to continue fighting Hamas in the long run, while Hamas seeks a permanent ceasefire. The two sides agree on the principles of a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but disagreements remain on the details of what should happen to whom, when and in what order.
Israeli officials are concerned that the first 33 hostages to be released must be alive and are worried about not having a say in which Palestinian prisoners would be released. These are issues that could potentially be resolved through negotiation. However, the more fundamental sticking point is when the war should end. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel cannot accept a proposal that endangers the security of its citizens and the future of the country.
The US government’s decision will play a significant role in the outcome of the negotiations. So far, US spokespeople have avoided commenting on the deal Hamas has signed up to, and they have only warned against a military operation in Rafah. Suppose the US were to support the current proposal. In that case, Mr Netanyahu might be forced to choose between his main ally and the ultra-nationalist hardliners propping up his government who oppose any compromise.
It is unclear whether there is a way for Qatari, Egyptian, and American negotiators to find a middle path through this. Public statements are frequently used in negotiations to put pressure on the other side, so the announcement by Hamas could be an attempt to push Israel into making concessions and divide it from its allies. Israel’s warnings about an imminent military operation in Rafah could be an attempt to extract better terms from Hamas. However, the question of whether any ceasefire is permanent or not looks hard to square with clever diplomatic language.
Israel has agreed to send a delegation to Cairo with modest ambitions, not to hammer out a deal but “to exhaust the possibility of reaching an agreement under conditions acceptable to Israel.” Ultimately, much will depend on what President Biden decides.
