Pakistan has been given an early warning, and this time there should be little excuse for being caught unprepared. The developing El Niño could become the strongest recorded since comparable monitoring began, creating serious risks for countries already highly vulnerable to climate change.
The World Meteorological Organisation expects the phenomenon to reach its peak towards the end of this year, with its climatic effects potentially continuing well into 2027. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific could rise to around 3.6 degrees Celsius above average. For Pakistan, these figures are not merely part of a distant global climate forecast. They point towards possible disruption to rainfall, agriculture, water supplies, public health and the wider economy.
Extreme weather is no longer exceptional. Heatwaves, floods, droughts and violent storms are becoming more frequent and destructive as a warming planet intensifies naturally occurring climate patterns. The previous powerful El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record. If the developing event proves even stronger, its consequences could extend far beyond the Pacific.
Pakistan remains particularly exposed despite contributing only a small share of global greenhouse gas emissions. This climate injustice deserves continued attention at international forums, but it does not make the country any less vulnerable to the physical consequences of global warming. Floods will still destroy homes and crops. Heatwaves will still threaten lives and productivity. Glacial melt, irregular monsoons and water shortages will continue to test the country’s institutions.
Pakistan therefore needs two climate strategies at the same time: it must continue demanding international climate justice and financing while substantially improving preparedness at home.
The greater concern is that Pakistan’s climate response remains too reactive. Attention intensifies after floods, heatwaves or other disasters have already caused destruction. Speeches are delivered, emergency meetings are held, international assistance is requested and reconstruction begins. What remains inadequate is the institutional capacity to anticipate risks before they become disasters.
This weakness is particularly visible at provincial, district and local levels. Drainage and flood-protection systems remain vulnerable, urban expansion frequently proceeds without adequate consideration of environmental risks, and settlements continue to grow in areas exposed to flooding and extreme temperatures. Disaster management cannot succeed if preparation begins only after an emergency has arrived.
The latest warning should therefore lead to an immediate national assessment of climate risks. Provincial disaster-management authorities should identify areas most vulnerable to floods, drought and extreme heat under a severe El Niño scenario. Agricultural departments should assess which crops and farming regions face the greatest danger from changing rainfall and temperature patterns.
Reservoir operations and irrigation plans should also be reviewed. Hospitals must prepare for heat-related and climate-linked health emergencies. Emergency shelters, evacuation arrangements and early-warning systems should be tested before they are needed. Most importantly, district and local administrations should have clear contingency plans instead of waiting for instructions from higher authorities once a crisis is already under way.
The economic consequences make preparedness even more urgent. Pakistan has limited fiscal space to absorb repeated climate disasters. Floods damage infrastructure and agriculture, droughts reduce production, extreme heat lowers productivity, and reconstruction consumes resources that could otherwise finance development. Climate shocks can therefore worsen food inflation, fiscal deficits, poverty and external financing pressures simultaneously.
For vulnerable households, the consequences are even more severe. A destroyed crop, damaged home or lost source of income can push a family already living close to poverty into long-term economic insecurity. Climate preparedness should consequently be treated not simply as environmental policy but as an essential component of economic and social policy.
The international community also carries responsibility. Countries that have contributed least to global warming continue to bear some of its harshest consequences. Climate finance must therefore become faster, more accessible and increasingly focused on adaptation and resilience. Assistance delivered before a catastrophe can protect lives and infrastructure far more effectively than funding mobilised only after destruction has occurred.
Yet Pakistan cannot make international assistance the foundation of its climate strategy. External financing can strengthen resilience, but domestic institutions must ultimately prepare communities, maintain infrastructure, enforce sensible urban planning and respond effectively when emergencies occur.
The warning has arrived months in advance. Pakistan still has time to assess vulnerabilities, strengthen preparedness and reduce potential losses.
The real test is therefore no longer whether the country can predict the next climate emergency. It is whether the state can act on a warning before that warning becomes a disaster.
