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China Emerges as Peacemaker in Middle East: Is US Sleeping?

Pakistan welcomes the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The normalization of relations may ensure peace in the region.
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EDITORIAL:

In a surprising turn of events, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran have decided to put aside their differences and resume diplomatic relations within two months, under the Chinese umbrella. The move comes after several rounds of secretive discussions between the two nations, and is aimed at implementing security and economic cooperation deals signed over two decades ago. It was widely known that something was brewing in China, Iraq, and Oman regarding Tehran and Riyadh, but the speed at which this diplomatic breakthrough was achieved has caught everyone off guard.

Whether or not this development goes beyond issuing a tri-lateral statement, only time will tell. However, it has opened several avenues for fresh cooperation, particularly in the Middle Eastern region. The two countries had severed diplomatic ties in 2016 following a series of rival flashpoints including the Saudi execution of revered Iranian cleric al-Nimr.

Pakistan has warmly welcomed the development, calling it a ‘diplomatic breakthrough’ and commending China’s role in coordinating the agreement. However, the latter part of the official statement has created doubts regarding China’s ‘conclusive’ role in brokering the deal. Pakistan claimed to have played a ‘constructive role’ in bridging the gap between the two nations, despite not being mentioned in the trilateral statement issued by China, Iran, and KSA. As Pakistani FM was not seen in the picture with FM Wang Yi, Islamabad’s ‘constructive role’ could at best be seen as wishful thinking. The ‘cut and paste’ portion of the statement could have been avoided.

The announcement of the resumption of diplomatic relations between KSA and Iran is a significant development, not just for the two nations but also for the wider region. It could potentially lead to a de-escalation of tensions, which have had a destabilizing effect on the Middle East for years. It is heartening to see that China has played a positive role in facilitating this agreement, and it demonstrates the country’s growing influence in the region.

The resumption of diplomatic relations between KSA and Iran could also have a positive impact on the global economy. The two nations are major players in the oil market, and the uncertainty surrounding their relationship has had a negative impact on oil prices. A more stable relationship between the two could lead to greater cooperation in the oil sector and a stabilization of prices.

However, it remains to be seen whether this diplomatic breakthrough will lead to a lasting peace between KSA and Iran. Both nations have been involved in proxy wars across the region, and there are deep-seated ideological differences that are unlikely to disappear overnight. Nonetheless, this is a positive step forward, and it is important that the international community supports this development.

It is an indisputable truth that China has become a peacemaker in recent times. However, to paint this as a diplomatic defeat for the United States may not be entirely accurate. In fact, the US has been seeking to limit its involvement in the Middle East for quite some time, particularly under the leadership of Obama, Trump, and Biden. This policy shift would naturally create space for China and Russia to fill, especially in the realm of providing security to GCC countries against both internal and external threats.

Although, recent events, such as the 11-day war in Gaza in 2021, the assassination of Iraq’s Prime Minister, and attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq, have drawn the US back into the Middle East. This has made it difficult for Washington to continue its policy of limiting involvement in the region. Moreover, the US’s wavering approach to Iran’s nuclear deal (JCPOA), coupled with the crippling sanctions imposed on Iran by Trump, followed by Biden’s inability to revive the deal, has forced Iran to look towards Russia and China for support.

Furthermore, it is possible that the realization that regional issues needed to be addressed regionally had struck both Iran and KSA, prompting them to let China take the lead. The hurried withdrawal of NATO and US forces from Afghanistan, leaving GCC countries worried about their own security, and the ongoing war in Yemen with Houthis’ relentless resolve, may have played a part in bringing Tehran and Riyadh to the negotiating table. Both Iran and KSA stand to lose if the Yemen conflict escalates any further. Therefore, it makes sense for them to try and limit their losses, if not avoid them altogether.

China’s involvement in the Middle East can be seen as an attempt to establish itself as a major player in the region, and not necessarily as a challenge to the US’s dominance. China’s approach to Middle Eastern affairs has been primarily economic, with a focus on trade and investment. This approach has allowed China to build relationships with countries in the region, and positions it as a potential mediator in regional conflicts.

China’s engagement with Iran and KSA can also be seen as an attempt to diversify its sources of energy. As the world’s largest oil importer, China is heavily reliant on oil from the Middle East. By establishing closer relationships with countries in the region, China hopes to secure its energy supplies and reduce its dependence on any one country.

In the past, the US has played a crucial role in maintaining stability in the Middle East. However, the US’s involvement in the region has also been a source of tension and conflict. Many in the region view the US’s presence as an attempt to interfere in their affairs and impose its own agenda. This has led to resentment towards the US and a desire for alternative partners, such as China.

It remains to be seen how China’s involvement in the Middle East will shape the region’s future. While China’s economic approach has been successful in many parts of the world, it remains to be seen whether it can be applied to the complex and volatile environment of the Middle East. China’s lack of experience in the region, as well as its limited military capabilities, may prove to be significant challenges.

Undoubtedly, China has emerged as the harbinger of peace in the Middle East, stirring the stagnant waters of the region’s political landscape. Its diplomatic efforts and efficient mediation have led to the revival of diplomatic relations between two rival nations – Iran and KSA – marking a significant stride towards the much-needed stability and harmony in the area.

In the grand scheme of things, Iran and KSA hold the mantle when it comes to oil diplomacy, regional security, and overall economic and political development. Their unbridled rivalry had been a bone of contention for the world’s superpowers, vying for greater influence in this region, blessed with an abundance of energy resources and strategic importance. It is no secret that China has provided the much-needed respite to these long-time adversaries to have a cordial discussion on managing their interests and relations.

Though the outcomes of this peacekeeping mission remain to be seen, certain deductions could be made from a macroscopic lens of global and regional geopolitics and geo-economics:

Firstly, it is possible to mediate and resolve conflicts only when the concerned parties have complete faith in the mediator. China’s success in bridging the gap between Iran and KSA speaks volumes of its impartiality, reliability and diplomacy skills.

Secondly, regional platforms may prove to be more effective than the UN in addressing regional issues. The Middle East has a complex political landscape that needs to be understood and tackled by the locals themselves. Hence, Xi Jinping’s visit to the Middle East has provided greater diplomatic assurances and space to KSA, Iran, and other GCC countries, while Joe Biden’s visit was more focused on the US’s pro-Israel policies than on overall conflict resolution perspectives. The US’s waning influence in the region is evident, whereas China’s ascendance as a peacekeeper is a bright prospect.

Thirdly, the recent US withdrawal from Afghanistan has left the GCC countries pondering about their security. This uncertainty and the ever-menacing war in Yemen, coupled with Houthis’ unwavering stance, may have nudged Iran and KSA to sit across the table and find a common ground. In any case, the losses needed to be curtailed if not outrightly avoided.

Fourthly, the detente between Iran and KSA has signaled a shift in their approach towards the US-led West. Both Tehran and Riyadh have made it clear that China is a more dependable partner when it comes to economics, security, and regional peace. The crippling sanctions imposed on Iran by Trump, coupled with Biden’s inability to revive the JCPOA and the subsequent failure of Vienna talks, might have pushed Iran towards Russia and China.

It’s easy to get carried away and start glorifying the recent developments as a significant victory for China and a loss for the US. However, we need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. The US is still the unrivaled superpower of the world, and the problems plaguing the Middle East have not gone away. We cannot simply sweep away decades of sectarian divides and differences through symbolic gestures.

Sure, it’s a positive sign that KSA and Iran have expressed intentions to open embassies in each other’s capitals. But we must remember that this is only the first step, and a lot more needs to be done to achieve lasting peace in the region. After all, both nations have a long and complicated history, and any minor incident or statement from Tehran, Riyadh, or Washington could easily undo the progress that has been made so far.

Moreover, the conflicts in the Middle East are far from over. The Israel-Palestine dispute, the Iran-Israel issues, the war in Yemen, and the conflict in Syria are still raging on. The US is still very much relevant in all these issues, and any attempts to sideline it would be futile.

We must also not forget that China’s role in the Middle East is still in its early stages, and it remains to be seen how effective its mediation efforts will be in the long run. The US has been involved in the region for decades, and it has built significant diplomatic, economic, and military ties with the countries in the region. It’s unlikely that China will be able to replace the US as the region’s primary partner anytime soon.

Over and above, it’s essential to remember that the Middle East is a complex and volatile region. It’s not just a matter of brokering peace deals between two nations. There are several factions, interest groups, and external powers involved, each with their own agenda and goals. It’s a delicate balancing act, and any misstep could lead to disastrous consequences.

In conclusion, while the recent developments are undoubtedly a positive sign, we must not get carried away and assume that all problems in the Middle East have been solved. It’s only the first step, and a lot more needs to be done to achieve lasting peace in the region. The US is still a significant player in the region, and any attempts to sideline it would be futile. China’s role in the Middle East is still in its early stages, and it remains to be seen how effective its mediation efforts will be. The Middle East is a complex and volatile region, and any progress made must be approached with caution and careful consideration.

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