The AI Arms Race in South Asia

14th January is World Logic Day & UNESCO celebrates it with the whole world. Pakistan must ensure the spirit of Logic in state operations.

Editorial

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is increasingly defined by disruptive technologies, with artificial intelligence (AI) at the forefront of this transformation. As nations around the world integrate AI into various sectors, its role in military strategy has become a critical concern—particularly in South Asia, where India and Pakistan are vying for technological supremacy in their defence sectors. India, in particular, is making bold strides in AI integration, shifting its military doctrines toward more offensive postures, raising alarms over potential regional instability.

India’s AI ambitions are a direct response to the need to enhance its defence capabilities, as it aims to shorten the sensor-to-shooter gap and accelerate decision-making processes. The Indian military is rapidly advancing AI, machine learning (ML), and quantum technologies, integrating them into electronic warfare systems to modernize military operations. The launch of initiatives like the Evaluating Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (ETAI) Framework in October 2024 highlights India’s commitment to this technological evolution. Meanwhile, the country is also investing in AI-powered surveillance, autonomous weapon systems, and high-powered computing AI clouds, backed by a $12 million annual budget for the Defence Artificial Intelligence Project Agency (DAIPA).

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However, while these advancements position India as a regional leader in defence technology, they also raise significant concerns. The aggressive push for AI in India’s defence sector risks escalating tensions with Pakistan, which has responded cautiously to the growing AI militarisation in its neighbour. Although Pakistan has begun investing in AI and robotics, its capabilities remain far behind India’s, limiting its ability to compete on the same technological level. This disparity may create an imbalance in regional security, with the risk of miscalculations or accidental escalations in a conflict scenario.

To avoid catastrophic consequences, both nations must prioritise regulatory frameworks and confidence-building measures (CBMs) to manage the integration of AI in their military strategies. Without such safeguards, AI-driven warfare could fuel instability, as both sides might feel compelled to use AI to gain a technological edge, potentially lowering the threshold for conflict. Given the delicate security environment in South Asia, it is imperative that India and Pakistan establish robust communication channels and agreements on the responsible use of AI in military operations to ensure strategic stability and avert further escalation.

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