Musa Ali
The necessity for peace between Pakistan and India is not just critical, but urgent. As two declared nuclear powers, the potential for devastating each other in an all-out conflict is a stark reality. The catastrophic consequences of war underscore the importance of immediate dialogue and diplomacy in maintaining stability in South Asia.
Furthermore, the potential benefits of economic cooperation are immense. By reallocating resources from military endeavors to economic development, education, and healthcare, both nations can significantly improve the welfare of their populations. This strategic shift could foster growth, leading to a relationship marked by mutual benefit and a hopeful future, transcending historic grievances.
The potential for collaboration in various sectors, including trade, environmental concerns, and public health initiatives, is vast. Embracing a partnership based on good neighborly relations could mitigate long-standing tensions and open pathways for cooperation. Joint efforts in managing river resources or combating cross-border disease outbreaks could yield significant advantages for the citizens of both nations, inspiring hope for a peaceful future.
However, the reality of the political landscape affects these prospects significantly. Wishful thinking and idealistic hopes will not suffice; instead, an assessment grounded in the harsh realities of national, regional, and global politics is indispensable. Current dynamics reveal considerable challenges in achieving a peaceful resolution, particularly against the backdrop of rising nationalism within India.
Since Narendra Modi’s ascent to power in 2014, there has been a marked shift toward right-wing politics in India, accompanied by a troubling anti-Muslim rhetoric that echoes the sentiments from the early 2000s. Even as support for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to have waned slightly in recent elections, the party’s commitment to Hindutva—a nationalist ideology seeking to define Indian identity entirely through Hindu values—remains steadfast. The implications for religious minorities, particularly Muslims, are dire, as this ideological framework is likely to perpetuate their marginalization and the resulting societal discord.
The fallout from these internal policies is evident in India’s handling of its relations with Pakistan, especially concerning sensitive issues like Kashmir. The 2019 revocation of Kashmir’s special status illustrated the consequences of this approach, whereby demographic transformations were implemented to disadvantage the Muslim populace in the region. Such actions have exacerbated tensions, leading to more aggressive diplomatic maneuvers from the Indian government.
Modi’s administration has frequently adopted confrontational diplomatic strategies towards Pakistan, evidenced by incidents such as the 2016 arrest of Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav for espionage and the subsequent 2019 airstrike in Balakot. These actions reflect a broader pattern of perceived aggression that contributes to a grim atmosphere for bilateral dialogue.
India’s economic rise, now ranking it as the fifth-largest economy globally, starkly contrasts with Pakistan’s economic struggles. With an estimated GDP of $3.7 trillion compared to Pakistan’s $374 billion, the economic disparity is worrisome for Pakistani policymakers. Additionally, India’s impressive growth rate of 6.9 percent per year, juxtaposed with Pakistan’s meager 2.8 percent, signals an impending imbalance that could further undermine Pakistan’s strategic position over time. Economic and technological prowess is essential for national security, making this disparity a pressing concern.
Defense budgets tell a similar story; with India’s expenditure reaching approximately $83.6 billion compared to Pakistan’s $8.5 billion, the military capabilities of each nation reflect a troubling trend that ultimately favors India. Given India’s historical approach to regional relations—which has included military interventions and aggressive posturing towards neighbors—Pakistan’s vulnerability becomes increasingly apparent.
The strategic implications of India’s burgeoning power cannot be downplayed. Influential thinkers like Zbigniew Brzezinski have noted India’s ambitions for regional dominance, a desire for control extending from Iran to Southeast Asia, and interests in the Indian Ocean. These aspirations are facilitated by India’s growing international stature, seen in its membership in strategic alliances such as the G-20 and BRICS, and its increasing partnership with the United States, particularly in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, India’s opposition to initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its assertive stance towards China’s expanding sway in South Asia introduce additional points of contention between Islamabad and New Delhi. Consequently, the prospects for meaningful engagement and reconciliation between the two countries appear bleak while India pursues its hegemonic ambitions and resolves to maintain a confrontational approach in foreign policy.
The recent statements from Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, demonstrating unwillingness to engage in bilateral talks during his visit to Islamabad for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, paint a dismal picture for dialogue and diplomacy. This entrenched stance indicates that without substantial changes in policy and political will from the Indian side, significant progress towards improving bilateral relations is unlikely.
Given these realities, Pakistan must navigate a careful path that prioritizes peace without sacrificing its sovereignty or national interests. Establishing a framework for stable relations through mutual respect, non-interference, and recognizing each other’s territorial integrity should guide Pakistan’s foreign policy. An immediate goal should be the normalization of relations and fostering trade, laying the groundwork for a broader economic partnership.
Ultimately, the trajectory of Pakistan-India relations will be dictated by the interplay of realpolitik and power dynamics. For Pakistan, political stability and economic resilience will be crucial for harnessing an effective approach to engagement with India. Only through a strategic blend of realism and diplomacy can both nations hope to transcend their troubled history and work towards a more peaceful coexistence. The stakes could not be higher—peace is not merely desirable; it is imperative for the future of both countries and the broader stability of South Asia.
