Dr bilawal Kamran
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has issued a critical warning to Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan’s primary agricultural regions, forecasting up to a 35% water shortage for the remainder of the Rabi season, which includes the crucial wheat harvest. This alarming announcement comes as the country’s two largest reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla dams, are on the brink of reaching their dead levels. The IRSA’s forecast suggests that the two provinces could experience significant shortfalls of 30-35% in water supply, especially when operating the reservoirs in “run-of-the-river” mode. This stark warning aligns with IRSA’s earlier projections made in October, where it was anticipated that the storage levels of these dams would fall to dead levels towards the end of the winter crop cycle.
While this news is concerning, it is by no means unexpected. Water shortages have increasingly become a recurring issue for Pakistan, impacting both the summer and winter crop seasons. This challenge has only been exacerbated by the growing frequency of dry spells and the accelerating retreat of glaciers due to the ongoing effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is now felt on a daily basis, with reduced precipitation being one of the most visible signs of this looming crisis. The winter of 2024, for instance, saw a 40% drop in rainfall and snowfall compared to normal levels, leading to drought-like conditions across much of the country.
Despite some rains in February which helped mitigate drought-related risks to the new wheat harvest, dry conditions continue to persist in several regions. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported that the winter months have been unusually hot, with temperatures rising significantly above the seasonal average. These conditions are a direct result of the intensifying climate crisis, which is making extreme weather events like floods, heatwaves, and droughts more frequent and severe.
Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change has become an undeniable reality, with the country now ranking among the top 10 nations most at risk from its devastating effects. The impacts of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, and erratic rainfall patterns, are no longer future concerns — they are happening now, disrupting lives, damaging infrastructure, and undermining the country’s agricultural and economic stability.
The country’s agriculture sector, which heavily relies on water from the Indus River, is particularly susceptible to these changes. Any reduction in the water supply not only threatens food security but also jeopardizes the livelihoods of millions of farmers who depend on irrigation for their crops. The wheat harvest, one of the most important crops for Pakistan, is particularly vulnerable to water shortages. A failure to meet the water requirements for this staple crop could lead to lower yields, price hikes, and food scarcity in the coming months.
In addition to water shortages, Pakistan’s agricultural sector faces a host of other challenges due to climate change. The continued retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas — a key water source for the Indus River — is expected to result in diminished river flow in the coming years. Moreover, shifting rainfall patterns, including both periods of excessive rainfall and long dry spells, are making it increasingly difficult for farmers to predict planting and harvesting schedules. The added unpredictability of extreme weather events further complicates efforts to safeguard the country’s food security.
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Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate-induced disasters is not a new issue. In 2022, the country faced a devastating combination of extreme weather events: a prolonged heatwave and drought followed by catastrophic flash floods. These floods displaced over 33 million people, while landslides destroyed crucial infrastructure in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other northern regions. The damage caused by these events was not just immediate; the recovery process is ongoing, with many displaced individuals still struggling to rebuild their lives and find stable employment.
These disasters, while significant, are merely a glimpse of what the future could hold. Climate change is already stretching Pakistan’s resources, placing enormous strain on its economy, infrastructure, and social fabric. The government’s response to these crises has been insufficient in terms of both preparedness and recovery. Although the immediate damage from the 2022 floods was catastrophic, Pakistan’s failure to make adequate investments in climate resilience has left it ill-equipped to deal with future challenges.
Pakistan’s lack of preparedness for climate change is a result of inadequate planning, insufficient investment in climate adaptation measures, and a general lack of long-term vision. While some resources have been allocated for disaster relief and recovery, the country’s overall strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change remains weak. As a result, Pakistan continues to suffer from the compounded effects of climate-related disasters without the necessary institutional support or infrastructure to protect its vulnerable populations.
Despite the clear and present danger posed by climate change, Pakistan’s policymakers have been slow to take meaningful action. The country has yet to make significant investments in climate adaptation and resilience, despite the fact that the need for such measures is more urgent than ever. Instead of taking proactive steps to address the crisis, Pakistan’s leaders often fail to prioritize long-term sustainability in favor of short-term political gains.
This lack of foresight is most evident in Pakistan’s agricultural policies. While the country continues to rely heavily on water from the Indus River for irrigation, there has been little effort to conserve water or improve the efficiency of water use. The current water management system is outdated, and despite the increasing frequency of water shortages, the country has not yet embraced modern irrigation techniques or invested in the rehabilitation of water infrastructure. This failure to adapt to changing circumstances only exacerbates the impact of water scarcity on agriculture.
Moreover, the government’s response to climate change has been largely reactive rather than proactive. Pakistan needs a comprehensive climate strategy that addresses both the causes of climate change and its consequences. This includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect natural resources, invest in renewable energy, and build resilience to extreme weather events. Without such a strategy, Pakistan will continue to suffer the consequences of a warming planet, with devastating effects on its economy and its people.
As Pakistan grapples with the effects of climate change, it is crucial that the government takes immediate action to protect its food security and economy. The water shortages affecting Punjab and Sindh are just one symptom of a much larger problem. The country’s agricultural sector must be modernized, with investments in water conservation, efficient irrigation techniques, and climate-resilient crops.
At the same time, Pakistan must focus on long-term climate adaptation strategies that address both mitigation and resilience. This includes creating infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events, investing in renewable energy sources, and improving disaster preparedness. Climate change is not a distant threat; it is a reality that Pakistan must confront head-on if it is to protect its people, economy, and future.
In conclusion, Pakistan is facing an escalating water crisis exacerbated by climate change, which threatens its agricultural productivity, food security, and overall stability. The government must act now to address the root causes of this crisis and invest in measures that will safeguard the country’s future. Without urgent action, Pakistan risks further environmental degradation, economic decline, and social unrest, which will only compound the suffering of its people in the years to come.
