On Monday, Chicago wheat prices extended their decline, reaching their lowest levels in more than three months, while soybean prices dropped to their lowest in four years. The market faced pressure from the ongoing harvest of crops in the United States and Russia, leading to an increase in global supplies and subsequent downward pressure on prices.
According to a trader based in Singapore, the completion of the U.S. wheat harvest and favorable weather conditions for the Russian harvest contributed to the significant drop in prices as supplies continue to rise. The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) lost 1.3% and settled at $5.43-3/4 a bushel, marking a new low since April 3. Similarly, corn prices fell by 0.8% to $4.11-1/2 a bushel, and soybeans slid 1.1% to $10.53-1/2 a bushel, reaching their lowest level since 2020 at $10.52 a bushel during Monday’s trading session.
The warm and dry weather conditions in key Northern Hemisphere suppliers have further exacerbated the downward pressure on wheat prices, aiding the progress of the harvest. The latest estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed an increase in the projection for corn production and a reduction in the soybean production forecast, in line with the planted acreage for each crop. Additionally, the USDA predicted that the 2024/25 corn crop is expected to be the third-largest in U.S. history, with the highest corn end-stocks in six years as of September 2025.
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Despite the favorable U.S. crop conditions, there were noteworthy discrepancies between market expectations and USDA estimates. For instance, the USDA projected old-crop corn ending stocks to be 1.877 billion bushels, significantly lower than traders’ expectations of 2.049 billion bushels. Furthermore, Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 marketing season surged to 1.5 million metric tons by July 12, from 894,000 tons in the previous year, as reported by the agriculture ministry.
Additionally, regulatory data revealed that large speculators increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures, while non-commercial traders adjusted their positions in CBOT wheat and soybeans. These developments indicate the complex interplay of factors shaping the global agricultural commodities market.
