A new study has revealed that the global population is facing a significant demographic shift due to falling fertility rates over the next 25 years. The research, published in The Lancet medical journal, predicts that by 2050, three-quarters of countries will fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female, leaving low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia responsible for the majority of new births. The report’s authors suggest that this will have profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical impacts, driving changes to international relations and highlighting new challenges in migration and global aid networks.

The study funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation highlights a divergence between high-income countries, where birth rates are falling, and low-income countries where they continue to rise. The report predicts that by 2100, just six countries will have population-replacing birth rates: The African nations of Chad, Niger, and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and central Asia’s Tajikistan. Shrinking workforces in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention, even as advances in technology provide some support.

It’s essential to note that already, many advanced economies have fertility rates well below the replacement rate. By the middle of the century, that category is set to include major economies China and India, with South Korea’s birth rate ranking as the lowest globally at 0.82. Lower-income countries are expected to see their share of new births almost double from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100. By the turn of the century, sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all new births, according to the report.

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