Shazia Ramzan
The World Bank’s recent revelation that nearly 45 percent of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty line should not come as a shock to anyone closely observing the country’s socioeconomic trajectory. Even more alarming is the surge in extreme poverty, which has reportedly climbed from 4.9 percent to 16.5 percent. These numbers, sobering as they are, only reflect a partial truth—based on data from a 2018-19 survey—making them outdated in the context of Pakistan’s recent crises, including the devastating floods of 2022 and the historic inflationary spiral that followed.
While the World Bank clarified that the rising poverty rates stem largely from a recalibration of the global poverty line rather than abrupt changes in Pakistan’s underlying economic structure, the reality on the ground paints a much bleaker picture. According to the Bank, 82 percent of the increase is due to the updated poverty threshold, while the remaining 18 percent is attributed to domestic price inflation between 2017 and 2021. Yet, even this technical explanation fails to fully account for the hardship felt daily by millions of Pakistani families struggling with surging food, energy, and housing costs.
What’s deeply concerning is that Pakistan has not conducted a household income and expenditure survey (HIES) since 2019. In the absence of up-to-date data, policymakers and aid organizations are flying blind. The existing poverty statistics exclude the economic aftershocks of recent floods, which displaced millions, destroyed infrastructure, and wiped out livelihoods. Nor do they factor in the catastrophic consequences of fiscal mismanagement, dwindling development spending, and record unemployment. It is almost certain that when the next survey is finally conducted, the figures will reveal an even sharper decline in national welfare.
In response, the World Bank is currently conducting a Poverty and Resilience Assessment, due for release in September. This study promises to offer a clearer picture of poverty trends over the past two decades, including insights into regional disparities and fiscal equity. While useful, this too will be merely diagnostic unless it is followed by urgent and targeted corrective action.
The rise in poverty is not an isolated incident but the cumulative result of multiple structural failings. Stagnant economic growth, inflationary shocks, poor disaster management, and chronic governance deficits have all converged to create an environment where upward mobility is increasingly unattainable. Millions of Pakistanis now hover perilously close to the poverty line, vulnerable to even the slightest economic disturbance. What once separated the “non-poor” from the “poor” is now a thin, volatile line eroded by fiscal austerity and deteriorating public services.
Despite these daunting realities, reversing the poverty trend is still possible—but only through coherent, well-targeted, and well-funded policy interventions. This demands more than bureaucratic gestures and donor-dependent programs. It requires a coordinated national strategy with clearly defined goals, timelines, and accountability mechanisms. Social protection must be scaled up, particularly for rural populations, informal workers, and disaster-affected communities. Access to basic services such as education, healthcare, and clean water must be prioritized and expanded.
Moreover, the government must shift from blanket subsidies and short-term cash transfers to productive social investments that empower the poor to break the cycle of poverty. Programs like vocational training, microfinance, and rural infrastructure development can offer sustainable solutions. Technology can also play a role, helping identify beneficiaries, reduce leakages, and track progress in real time.
One global example that offers a roadmap is China, which has successfully lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty within a single generation. While the scale and political structure differ, certain principles remain transferable: strong political will, data-driven policymaking, local government empowerment, and a consistent focus on long-term poverty alleviation. Pakistan, too, can adopt these principles by aligning provincial and federal efforts, decentralizing program delivery, and ensuring that poverty eradication remains a national priority beyond political cycles.
But perhaps the greatest challenge lies in mustering political consensus and administrative capacity. Pakistan’s fragmented political landscape and strained intergovernmental relations often sabotage even the best-laid plans. In the absence of political will, anti-poverty strategies become little more than donor-pleasing paperwork. Fiscal decentralization without capacity building results in inefficiency and corruption. Therefore, any national poverty alleviation plan must be anchored in strong institutional frameworks and inter-tier cooperation, particularly between federal, provincial, and local governments.
In conclusion, the rising poverty figures should not merely be a cause for concern—they should serve as a clarion call for reform. The current trajectory is unsustainable, both socially and economically. If Pakistan fails to address its poverty crisis with the urgency and seriousness it demands, the consequences will be far-reaching: social unrest, increased crime, educational collapse, and further economic stagnation. The time for action is now, and the window is rapidly closing.
