Editorial
The year 2025 is expected to be marked by significant global disruptions that could reshape the course of history. Countries like Pakistan must adapt swiftly to the strategic shifts that are already underway, particularly those affecting stability, risk management, and international relations. These shifts are not black swan events—sudden and unpredictable—but rather “grey rhinos”—issues that are visible and looming, yet often ignored until they cause major shocks.
The most critical force driving this disruption is geopolitics. As geopolitics takes center stage, it has become weaponized, deeply influencing national strategies while diverting attention from other critical global issues, like climate change and the unequal impacts of technological advancements on less developed economies. Among the most alarming developments is the surge in global conflict, particularly in Europe and the Middle East. The ongoing war in Europe has not only created energy and food security crises but has also triggered rising inflation, significantly affecting countries like Pakistan.
Closer to Pakistan, the Middle Eastern conflicts continue to have far-reaching consequences, destabilizing the region and impacting Pakistan’s diplomatic balance. The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria has further fueled tensions, while Israel’s expansionist policies continue to provoke unrest. With complex, competing interests from global powers such as the U.S., Russia, and Iran, Pakistan finds itself walking a diplomatic tightrope. The situation could further escalate if the conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies. Pakistan’s challenge will be to balance its relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia—two crucial players in the Middle East.
On the home front, Pakistan faces rising internal instability. The situation in Afghanistan, especially since the U.S. exit, has led to an uptick in militancy along Pakistan’s western border. This intensifying conflict, along with growing terrorism, poses a serious national security challenge that demands an urgent institutional response.
In addition to these regional challenges, Pakistan must also navigate the complex dynamics of nuclear deterrence with neighboring India, as well as the shifting geopolitical alliances in Asia. The China-India-Pakistan triad remains volatile, with unresolved conflicts exacerbating tensions. South Asia’s proximity to nuclear powers makes it one of the most sensitive regions globally. The escalating risks in this triad, along with the broader strategic issues, necessitate immediate, comprehensive diplomatic engagement to prevent catastrophic outcomes.
Meanwhile, Pakistan must also contend with the economic fallout from global shifts. The global order, especially regarding trade and economic policies, is undergoing radical change. Countries like Pakistan, with complex economic ties to both the U.S. and China, will find themselves in the midst of competing pressures. Trade wars, protectionism, and changes in global supply chains could disrupt Pakistan’s economy, especially as it faces vulnerabilities such as a fragile balance of payments and dependency on foreign investments.
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The challenges are not confined to economics and security alone. Climate change continues to impact Pakistan, and with the erosion of multilateral agreements on climate action, the country is vulnerable to the worsening effects of climate-related disasters. Pakistan must act proactively at global forums to mitigate these risks, but the lack of leverage and uncertainty in international climate agreements adds to the country’s vulnerability.
Pakistan’s diplomatic strategy must evolve if it is to thrive in this rapidly changing global landscape. The country’s traditional diplomatic model, which has largely focused on security concerns, needs to pivot toward a more aggressive promotion of commercial interests. As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2025, Pakistan will have the opportunity to reshape global discourse, but this requires a more modern and proactive approach to diplomacy. Additionally, Pakistan must strengthen its institutional capacity to respond to crises, effect reforms, and adapt its economic policies to an increasingly volatile global environment.
In conclusion, 2025 will test Pakistan’s ability to navigate a turbulent geopolitical landscape. While global shifts are inevitable, Pakistan must respond with agility, leveraging its strategic alliances and diplomatic channels while addressing internal challenges. The country’s ability to balance its regional and global interests, safeguard its economic future, and respond to emerging threats will define its place in the rapidly changing world order.
